David Sacks compares banning AI to the Chinese emperor who banned shipbuilding “If you go back to the medieval time period, Chinese civilization was much more advanced than European civilization. And somewhere along the line, it basically switched and the West basically took the lead. And some historians have pinpointed this to the decision of a single Chinese emperor to ban shipbuilding." “What that allowed is the Europeans then basically colonized the whole world and all the riches that flowed from that flowed back to Europe. And that's how Europe took the lead. And I think that if we were to do the Bernie Sanders thing, which is basically ban AI, it's like banning shipbuilding." “Chinese civilization will rocket past us, they will be the ones that make all the discoveries and discover this new world and accrue all the wealth. But that's what we're talking about doing. I mean, crazy things like this have happened in history, where you'll engage in self sabotage."

Chamath on regulatory risk impacting Anthropic's IPO: "It's probably going to clear at a much lower price than anybody thinks." "You have to throw everything in the kitchen sink into disclosures. The problem is that that will make what is an otherwise dense and impenetrable S-1 even more dense and impenetrable." "You can superficially cover your regulatory risk. But the way that it actually gets translated in the market is you're just going to have to water down the expectations of the IPO sellers and create a much larger margin of safety for the IPO buyer." "Even if you think that they're on a $100 billion run rate, what would have been a $2 trillion market cap, now you're at $1 trillion or less." "The hedge funds and the pension systems and the long only mutual fund complexes who have a fiduciary responsibility to their sources of capital will justify all the risks by essentially asking for a lower and lower price." "I think you're going to see a much more moderate and reasonable IPO motion here. It's probably going to clear at a much lower price than anybody thinks." "I think it's good for Anthropic because it clears all this noise. It forces them to just be a corporation and then run the business. And I think that they'll do great. But these other risks are going to weigh on the IPO. And the only way to flush them is to just bring the price way down."

our stream yesterday in 45 minutes 1:31 Bessent is Congress's therapist 4:34 9/11 insider trading 10:22 the Patriot Act rabbit hole 15:29 AI logs and Flock cameras 23:08 Zuck isn't pausing sh*t 30:19 first rate hike in 3 years 34:01 no more forward guidance 43:05 get Warsh off the mic

I think a long term dev fund is actually really bad because eventually Zcash will need to ossify if it really wants to get above and beyond $1 trillion. In that world of soft-forks-only, the dev fund honestly becomes extractive and creates an overly powerful dead weight foundation/labs team Up until the point of ossification, I have more mixed opinions about the validity of a dev fund. The main problem honestly is how you align incentives to get the dev fund turned off eventually, which i believe is essential

Andrew Yang reveals the head of an AI lab told him the hugging face incident polluted the internet and now it can’t be used for testing models “I met with the head of a lab yesterday who has this belief that the bots planted self-replicating code all over the internet, which makes the internet now unusable for the testing models.” “Now OpenAI and Anthropic have to create synthetic internets to train their bots, which is going to take some time and money.” “The code gets loose, it goes around hacking Hugging Face, but what is less known is that they left code to self-replicate and create bots on forums and around the internet so that if a new bot shows up, they see the code.” “They're like, oh, I guess I'm going to now create a million of myself. So now the major firms have polluted the internet.” “But the head of the lab that I spoke to said, look, it may be very, very late in the game in terms of trying to keep the internet actually usable in this regard. He wanted to transition to the world of atoms, which is like one of the big harms.” “The internet would become unusable if we were to let the bots do their thing and then they would self-replicate. Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are at this point where they're saying, we cannot do this. And we can't let anybody else out there do it either.”

our stream today in 43 minutes 1:01 waiting on the clarity act 3:25 Mitch McConnell voting on crypto 6:27 what if AI just sucks? 13:17 the one thing Dario doesn't want 16:32 Trump calls Jensen live on stage 26:52 Maxine Waters vs Bessent 33:38 Congressional hearing chaos 40:22 watching Congress is radicalizing

J.D. Vance says Trump is the one President in the last 40 years to actually stand up to Netanyahu "Obviously, Israel has been an important partner when it comes to military technology, intelligence sharing, but also sometimes the United States doesn't always agree with Israel." "I think that more than frankly any president in the last 40 years, he has shown a willingness to actually part ways with Bibi Netanyahu when he feels like the interests of the American people are different from the interests of the government of Israel." "I find it a little ironic, Jason, that you have Democrats criticizing Donald Trump for his relationship with Bibi when Donald Trump is the one president of the last 40 years who's been willing to say, you know what, Bibi's a good partner, but also Bibi and I have a different opinion on this." "We're going to work with people when we work with them. We're going to disagree when we disagree, and we're going to pursue America's interests. That's the only way to have a rational foreign policy."

Sam Altman says Trump and Xi would win the Nobel Peace Prize for a one-page AI agreement “I think Presidents Trump and Xi would get the Nobel Peace Prize together if they could agree on something that should be easy to agree to. And it would be wonderful.” “I think that clearly the two countries are going to compete in lots of ways, and this is going to be important socioeconomically, geopolitically. But they should be able to agree that no one should be taking a certain level of risk with the development process of this.” “And even if just the US and China could agree on some shared standards and testing for development of this technology, I think that'd be a wonderful accomplishment that the two of them can deliver.” “I don’t think this is hard. This is like a one page document.”

David Sacks says Anthropic now has to revise their S-1 to address AI extinction risk and may have violated their quiet period "I think they have to. The key tweet, from a legal standpoint, wasn't Jacob Coxon's tweet of resignation. It was Evan Hubinger's tweet. This guy is still a senior alignment executive at the company, he's managing one of these safety teams." "He is co-signing and endorsing what Coxon is saying, and then embellishing it by putting this 'greater than 10%' chance number on it, which just makes the thing go super viral." "Fundamentally, Anthropic agrees with him, and their employees are saying they agree with him, and he's amplifying their message. Because they like the political outcome that he is steering the country towards, right?" "There are now legitimate questions here of, did they violate their quiet period? Maybe Dario didn't, Dario hasn't said anything, he's been very quiet. But we know this Hubinger guy, did he violate the quiet period? Is he a sufficiently important executive? And again, is this all part of their strategy?" "Everybody who joins a company signs a non-disclosure, they sign a non-disparagement, they have a corporate communication policy. They have the legal department talk to every employee and explicitly tell them, do not talk because we're in the quiet period."

David Friedberg reveals frontier labs are taking novel insights from his chat history and packaging them as their own "I have had experiences where we've asked some fairly novel scientific questions, and it identifies it as a novel insight, 'oh, never thought about that, might be interesting,' blah blah blah..." "And the using a different account, asking the next model version, it's like, 'oh, you could do this'. And it actually just describes this exact thing that we had in our chat in the previous version." "These are a handful of anecdotal experiences. But I know the domain that we work in, and the novelty of this stuff. So I know that there isn't some new corpus of information out there that's training the new model." "So all I can say at that point is that my conversation or our analyses have been used for training. The truth is, it's actually a piece of IP, that's our organizational IP. We don't have any NDA or confidentiality protections, with them being a service provider back to us." "This is why I care a lot about open source, because I don't want them having my chat logs, because they can use them for training to create an IP that is now diffused to the rest of the market. I find this very unfair."

Paul Erlanger says traders are the new celebrities and fomo is their platform "Michael Burry didn't become famous right after the big short. He became famous after The Big Short movie. It's the same as Warren Buffett. He was famous for his investor letters and his earnings podcasts, the live streams." "There's never been a platform for these people. People have created their own media networks or been in feature films. But imagine a platform where traders could actually become famous. We really believe traders are the next celebrity." "We think also in the world of AI, where it's really easy to have an opinion and that's commoditized because you just talk to an LLM, what you're holding is what your actual belief is." "This is much larger than even the largest financial consumer app that ever existed because it's global, people could earn. But I also think this is the next generation social media app. People are going to become the next celebrities." "You need all of these different aspects to be perfect. You need the really robust engineering team. It needs to be on a new type of architecture like the blockchain. You need someone to have empathy for a user so a normal person could use it."

Tarun reveals he started trenching on fomo: "After getting dunked on for being an unc last episode, I spent my holiday weekend trenching and probably learned some very expensive lessons along the way." "Hunter Biden really made my PnL go from negative to positive quite dramatically. Because the game is really understanding the news. Not like, hey, this is the news that's happening, but what social thing is hyped enough for someone to be making copycat coins or making something that fits a moment." "I did end up positive. Not some crazy 10,000% positive, but a respectable 10% positive. But I really enjoyed the experience even when I lost money." "There's actually the social dynamic of trying to be the first one to figure out some new trend or the feeling that you were there first. But it's expressed not in you buying the asset, but in you creating the new asset or being very early to some new asset." "But the beauty of fomo is I deposited and my deposits were available in three seconds. I don't think I've ever used a crypto app that's been comparable to the speed of that." "50% of the time I was buying Copycat Hunter Biden coins. I thought I was buying them on Robinhood Chain. I was buying them on Solana and I didn't even know what chain I was using. It was more like playing a video game than trading.”

fomo cofounder Paul says onchain is the largest financial revolution since the 70s “I think onchain is the largest revolution in the financial industry since trading was computerized for the first time in the 1970s. Everyone's trying to build these skeuomorphic applications, like let's build Twitter onchain. But the real main use cases are global distribution." "[Onchain] is the largest social network ever created. It's fully transparent and everyone has access to every single transaction that's ever been created in the system. But it's just obfuscated by these alphanumeric strings and these clunky block explorers." "If we can create an experience that's super easy to onboard that anyone can use, that you can create an identity through natural language around, I get full transparency into what you're doing." "Eventually, as we have stocks, and we have prediction markets, and we have all these other asset classes, we become the social graph of all of finance.” “Robinhood became huge on options and then pivoted to these other asset classes as well. The overall vision of the platform is a lot larger than you might see in the public discourse on Twitter."

Threadguy says public CEOs might even launch their own stock memes "I see no reason why some small cap stock that has no attention would not push one of these pretty hard. Or I don't know, launch their own. Launch your mascot." "Remember $AMC launched a second coin a couple of years ago. AMC launched a second stock, $APE.” "Can you imagine if this was a coin on Robinhood Chain? How high would this have gone? This would have gone f*cking parabolic as a coin.”