19 MIDTERMS. Stocks gained a year later EVERY TIME.
From 1950 through 2022, the S&P 500 averaged +16.6% over BNY’s post-midterm measurement window, starting October 31st.
- The weakest gain was +3.0% after 2014
- The strongest gain was +33.6% after 1954
Midterms also beat 'Presidential Elections' on early returns in CNBC’s separate 1980–2024 analysis:
- One day → +0.5% vs. −0.1%
- One week → +1.0% vs. −0.5%
- One month → +1.5% vs. +0.8%
After ONE YEAR, average gains were nearly identical at +13.7% after midterms versus +13.8% after Presidential Elections.
The studies use different periods and measurement windows.
But, BOTH show a bullish historical backdrop for stocks after midterms.
Now, will the winning STREAK continue?