I grew up during the dot com boom & bust. I watched family & friends lose their jobs and investments to it. The best advice my mother ever gave me was that people always get sick…and if I wanted to study engineering, then study medicine too. That advice holds true for investing as well. In a recession, staples like healthcare, commodities & foodstuffs continue to do well while tech tanks. That’s why I continue to take profits along the way and add these boring type trades to my portfolio…right beside the sexy stuff like robotics and drones. Tldr: biotech and healthcare are going to continue to see a massive upward capital rotation as aging populations seek to cheat death via cellular immunotherapy, nootropics and personalized medicine. ⛸️Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.

Biotech growth is the nature progression of the looksmaxxing trend is a healthmaxxing trend. In short, there is no reason to be wealthy if you cant live longer and look better. AI data crunching, and eventually quantum, will help accelerate proteonomics, geonomics and cell therapies to make fatal disease chronic illnesses and some types of neoplasia detectible before they ever become metastatic or, potentially, even malignant.

My measured take on the signifcant treasury moves this week... while I believe this will be a relief valve on the extremely hot go-go stocks, I don't think this is going to lead to some major bear market or economic catastrophe. I'm already seeing the same type of bearporn posts we saw during the Iran conflict where investors were certain the market was going to experience a massive crash. Then again we started seeing it after the hantavirus headlines, and how it was the new covid. Now again with rising yields. Not only has the AAII bear sentiment stayed stubbornly high during one of the strongest stock market rallies in history, it actually headed higher this week (and the poll was taken before the big yield moves on Thursday and Friday). Clearly these risks don't matter to the market as much as people think they should, but it is providing that continuous wall of worry that keeps retail sidelined, a hallmark of strong bull markets.

Thorchain has been hacked six times in five years, and not once the same way. Each one through a different layer of the architecture. 2021 - Smart contract bug in the ETH Router. Attackers tricked Bifrost into reading manipulated msg.value events. ~$15.5M across three exploits. 2022 - Validator software bug. Non-deterministic behavior across nodes triggered a 20-hour outage. 2023 - TSS keygen vulnerability. Devs admitted a malicious validator could have drained vaults during a prior key generation. Network halted preemptively. 2025 (Jan) - Economic design failure. THORFi's lending model required RUNE to keep outperforming BTC/ETH. It didn't. $200M trapped. 2025 (Sep) - Social engineering. DPRK ran a Telegram deepfake on co-founder JP, extracted his MetaMask keys from iCloud Keychain. $1.35M lost. 2026 - TSS cryptography flaw. A malicious validator exploited the GG20 implementation, leaked key material across signing sessions, reconstructed the vault key. $10.7M drained. Plus: ~$605M of Bybit/Lazarus stolen funds laundered through in 2025. Validators voted to block, reversed under "code is law" pressure. Six distinct vectors: smart contract code, validator software, TSS keygen, economic design, social engineering, TSS cryptography. ~$227M directly lost or trapped. The architecture keeps finding new ways to fail.

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

As a huge bond bull I warned people for months to stay away from duration. This is why. The yield is great but duration risk can destroy years worth of yield if you are caught too far out on the curve. I've been saying $IEF was the furthest out I was willing to go (around 6 years duration), but a few months back I went 100% $SGOV which is 0-3M t-bills. We need to wait for rates to shake out a bit more before wading into the deep end of the pool. Just collect the 4-4.5% for now and chill.