Cooler inflation bought stocks less than an hour of green. S&P opened at 7,617 and has since been through 7,500. Nvidia is trading 6% under its open. If a good number only buys you an hour, we'd stop waiting for good numbers to fix this. The 10-year hasn't been under 5.1% all day. BTC is back at $68.7k and moving with tech. Buying the tech dip here is a brave hobby. We're risk-off. Cash and stables until a daily close back above 70k.

Soft PPI, BTC tags $70,142, gets sold straight back under $70k. Annual rate still 6.5%. Highest since 2022. Bit early for a party. First daily close under the 200-day yesterday. Bounce came on half the volume of the dump. Under $70k we expect $67,555 to get tested again. Daily close above $70k and we look at $71,400.

A US senator wants Congress to look at whether Nvidia is "too big to fail". That phrase belonged to banks in 2008. Nvidia has helped finance plenty of its own customers, so the comparison is less silly than it sounds. If Washington decides AI can't be allowed to break, that's a safety net. In our experience safety nets get paid for with printed money, which is the long-term bitcoin case. Just not yet. The Fed is still hiking.

The two-year Treasury yield has gone from 4.56% to 4.86% in two trading sessions as the market starts to price a bigger Fed hike in December. BTC lost $70,000 overnight and touched $67,555, its lowest since August. It's down about 8% since Monday's open. Nvidia had the headlines and closed down 4.3% yesterday. We think the short end of the bond market is doing the damage, and crypto is where leverage gets cleared first. If producer prices come in hot at 1:30pm UK, we don't see a quick reclaim of $70k. A soft print and a daily close back above it would make us look again. Is a half-point hike in December now in your base case too?

At lunchtime the S&P had gone green and looked rather pleased with itself, as if the biggest company in the market losing its chief executive were a normal Thursday. It didn't last. The S&P closed down 0.35% at 7,592 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.30%. Nvidia finished down 4.3% at $166.19, near the top of its range and well clear of the $148.80 low. Plenty of people bought that open. CoreWeave closed down 6.9% and Nebius 16.8%. AMD rose 5.9% and Broadcom 5.5%, which kept the chip index to a 0.5% loss. So the money stayed in semiconductors, but it moved away from anyone who leans on Nvidia's balance sheet. Washington spotted the same thing. After the close a senior Democratic senator asked Congress to look at whether Nvidia is "too big to fail", given the financing it has put behind the AI build-out, and what that could mean for banks and credit markets. That's a question normally saved for banks, and now a chipmaker is getting it. Rates didn't help. The 30-year auction cleared at 5.441% with 2.36 bids for every bond, down from 2.54 last time. The 10-year ended at 5.12%, up 14 basis points since Tuesday, and the 2-year rose 15. Polymarket has about 10% on a 50 basis-point hike in December, up from 7% this morning. Brent rose 3.6% to $96 after Iran said four tankers had been hit in the Strait of Hormuz, while gold fell 3%. Bitcoin is at $71,300, about 3.5% below the day's open, and Strategy lost 6.5%. We said this morning we wouldn't bid the bounce until the financing question got an answer and rates settled down. We're still waiting on both. Friday's producer prices come first, then Nvidia's results on Tuesday, presented by a chief financial officer who is now also the chief executive. The upside case is a soft PPI and a clean quarter that let everyone buy the dip with a clear conscience. We'd take that. If a senator has to ask whether a chipmaker is too big to fail, who exactly is underwriting the next round of data centres?

Jensen Huang resigns as Nvidia CEO and not staying on at the board either. The market was definitely not pricing this in and probably causes a lot of problems in the short-medium term. Risk assets likely to suffer. US cash open in 30 mins...

Last Wednesday, the day after the midterms, Microsoft jumped nearly 7% to a record close of $555.80. The next day the Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since 2020. When the AI trade was getting hammered, Microsoft was where people went to hide. This week it's going the other way. CoreWeave is up over 20% today, Oracle about 8% and the chip stocks about 6%. Microsoft is down about 2.5%, at around $520. That's two red days in a row while nearly everything else in tech bounces. There are a couple of things going on that we don't think many people have joined up. On Tuesday Anthropic launched a spreadsheet tool that does a lot of what Excel does, plus a whiteboard app. Office is one of Microsoft's biggest earners. And Microsoft is one of the big tech names putting money into Anthropic when it lists next week. So it's helping fund a company that's starting to go after its own customers. Then there's the money side. Anthropic is looking to raise around $90bn, counting what those tech backers are putting in. That cash has to come from somewhere. If you're a big fund that piled into Microsoft as the safe way to own AI, it's the easiest thing to trim to make room. If that's what's happening, Microsoft could keep lagging into the listing, even on good days for AI. Once the deal's done, that selling should stop and it could catch up quickly. And if Anthropic's tools start winning Office customers, it becomes a much bigger question than a few weeks of money moving around. We're not saying anything's wrong with Microsoft as a business. It still makes a fortune. We're just watching whether it's still the place people hide.

Most crypto chat this week is about Washington and subpoenas. We think that's the slow story. The new Congress doesn't sit until January. The faster one is rates. Core at 0.3% for a third month and the 2-year touching 4.71% is rough on anything that needs cheap money, and ETH (-7.6% in November) is feeling it more than BTC (-3.8%). Our base case is BTC loses $73,600, held three days running, before it sees $80,000 again. If it holds and yields ease, we've misread this. Anyone still bidding ETH here?

Core held at 0.3% for a third month, even with oil down 23% in November. Tariffs, energy and AI-related demand are doing the work, not petrol. 25bp in December looks locked. 50bp went from zero to a small chance. Not a great backdrop for debt-funded AI into CoreWeave tonight.

Market wrap before bed 🌙 Stocks ripped 2%+. Oil dumped. Chips flew. BTC stayed parked near 2-month lows around $73.7k. When crypto sits out a risk-on day, it's telling you something: right now it's trading Washington, not the Nasdaq. CPI is the next test. Sleep well, stay sharp. 👀

Crypto spent nearly $200m on the midterms through Fairshake and a Tether-backed PAC. The return: Democrats control both chambers, and from January they can subpoena the industry and the Trump family's crypto business. Cryptonary take: The policy tailwind was always tied to one party. The risk now is less new laws, more two years of hearings and headlines.

Everyone is watching Nvidia's earnings on 17 November. The date that may matter more is 18 November. House committees have asked for a closed briefing on the board's probe into Jensen Huang. China is only about 9% of Nvidia's revenue, and its best chips were already barred there. So the risk isn't lost China sales. It's Nvidia's standing in Washington, where Huang has been the one negotiating access. Cryptonary take: Earnings tell you about this quarter. The 18th could tell you about the next few years.

A protocol can generate millions in revenue without passing any of it to token holders. Before calling its token undervalued, ask: Who pays the protocol?
Who receives the fees?
What reaches token holders? Revenue growth doesn’t always mean token value growth.

You guys are all our youngsters. It’s 2026 and you’re exposing the “Sahil Files” like it’s breaking news. We were exposing this guy back in November 2024. In an industry full of scammers, rugs, paid shills and course sellers, we’ve been calling out the bullshit long before it became popular. We shoot straight with you. Always have, always will.

BTC made another low overnight, and the bounce has already lost ground. We’re still cautious. On Binance spot, we’re watching $76,400 above and $75,200 below. Reclaim $76,400 and hold it on a retest, and the recovery becomes more credible. Break below $75,200 and struggle to reclaim it, and sellers remain in control. Spot selling has eased over the last few hours. Buyers haven’t done enough to reverse yesterday’s damage. Zcash is holding up better than BTC, but its overnight bounce has faded too. US jobs data lands at 8:30am ET. We’d rather wait for a recovery that holds than chase the first bounce.

Nasdaq closed down 5.5%. BTC is down 5.3%. ETH down 7.8%. ZEC? Down 3.9%, trading around $1,238. It’s taking the hit too. Just a smaller one. Meanwhile, Zcash’s NU7 upgrade is scheduled for block 3,543,405, cutting target block times from 75 seconds to 25. does ZEC keep holding up once the upgrade excitement passes? Strength before a catalyst gets our attention.

Crypto is not easy money. You’re competing against people no morals, better information, faster access and deeper pockets. Your only chance to make it is by investing in better quality info you and the people you meet. Stop cheaping out on your research and information sources.

My intern take on this: If your business model is built entirely around extracting value from your customers, eventually your only way to grow is by finding new ones. But when those new customers keep losing money, you’re fighting an uphill battle. You’re constantly replacing the people you’ve already burned. This isn’t even a crypto issue. It’s just common sense business.