🇦🇺Craig Tindale
@ctindale
A few of my thoughts on hard-to-understand issues. The only reason I write is to help awaken everyone from their slumber.
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@ctindale This will help further 🫵🏻🫵🏻
What if all apps could be copied perfectly in a few days or weeks ? . That might be the truth in a few months , the question is what does it mean .
Not just these examples ….but many things are disappearing instantly , things like mathematicians, developers - anyone !. This list of apps .
I don’t say that flippantly but it’s hard to know these days , where does it strike next .
What grows around the ones who stay is a kernel. An always-on layer that handles the volume of data, the first structure, the retrieval, so the mind on top of it can go longer and deeper. It’s the Jarvis model . You interact with it better the more you use it, and that interaction itself becomes the skill.
Like learning guitar - or tennis - it’s about practice
You learn how to ask the questions that pull the useful work out, how to frame the constraints so the output stays pointed at what matters, how to pressure-test your own thinking against what it surfaces, and how to stay more organized and productive without handing over the judgment. You learn to be much more productive .
The people who thrive get fluent at working with the kernel, so their own mentation expands while they remain the one who still decides what the questions are for and what counts as good. It’s some sort of reorder of the skills pecking order . It’s a new horse or tractor that needs to be learned how to use . Everyone can decide if it’s good or bad later but nothing will stop it happening .
In the right hands capability multiplies . The edge stays with the person who has gotten better at directing the layer instead of letting the layer do the thinking. There is a subtle change of flow
Maybe or maybe not , it is either good or bad , whether it should be this way ? We will only know in retrospect , it will be whatever it is to be anyway .
None NONE of us know that yet. We only think we do .
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🇺🇸 AI just cloned all of Adobe’s main apps and is giving them away…FOR FREE
Atlanta developer Brandon Thomas rebuilt Photoshop, Premiere, and Illustrator using Claude Opus 5.5 and Rust.
Seven apps, zero subscription fees, completely open source.
Yeah, software giants ain't going to like this one bit.
Source: Gizmodo / Writer: Bri
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Fair question what are global bond yields doing and what is the explanation/s?
I did it was just a bit slower because I had to make the chart
China is the odd one out on these charts. Its 10-year has fallen from about 4.5% in 2014 to around 1.7%. That isn't a vote of confidence. It's what Japan's chart looked like in the 1990s: falling prices, too much capacity, a property bust, and households saving instead of borrowing.
Low yields mean there's nowhere productive left for credit to go.
It's my Tindale Trap calculus running the other way. When there is substantial it doesn’t really matter which way the imbalance runs it’s the severity of the imbalance that matters
This is where the western economy dimmers are wrong , it’s equal opportunity doom for everyone . Eventually it leads to Bretton Woods 3-4-5 because I suspect it will take a few guys to get it right
The West starved its material ledger to feed asset prices. China overbuilt its material ledger, putting credit into factories, apartments and infrastructure until returns collapsed. Now it's exporting the surplus as dumping, which is why everyone else needs tariffs. Too much capacity and too little capacity both end in a debt problem.
Russia shows the third version: a war economy paying 15%-plus to fund itself.
The 10y10y line is the warning. That's the market's guess at the 10-year rate a decade from now, and in September it ticked up to about 2.4% even as the spot 10-year slid. Investors expect cheap money now and either reflation or bigger risk later, probably from local government debt landing on the central government's books.
It also explains the gold. A central bank in a deflating economy with yields at 1.7% gives up almost nothing by holding metal instead of bonds. China's 22 months of buying is partly insurance against Washington and partly an admission that its own paper pays little, and it's managing its own debt overhang by repressing its own savers.
So the West is repricing its debt higher and China is repressing its debt lower. Neither is healthy. Each has broken the link between credit and real returns, just from opposite ends.
M3 growth isn't the inflation rate. Money supply rises with credit, and in Australia most of that credit goes into existing housing. Which is my point: it inflates the financial ledger and land, not CPI.
The problem is where the money goes, not how much of it there is.
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I did it was just a bit slower because I had to make the chart
China is the odd one out on these charts. Its 10-year has fallen from about 4.5% in 2014 to around 1.7%. That isn't a vote of confidence. It's what Japan's chart looked like in the 1990s: falling prices, too much capacity, a property bust, and households saving instead of borrowing.
Low yields mean there's nowhere productive left for credit to go.
It's my Tindale Trap calculus running the other way. When there is substantial it doesn’t really matter which way the imbalance runs it’s the severity of the imbalance that matters
This is where the western economy dimmers are wrong , it’s equal opportunity doom for everyone . Eventually it leads to Bretton Woods 3-4-5 because I suspect it will take a few guys to get it right
The West starved its material ledger to feed asset prices. China overbuilt its material ledger, putting credit into factories, apartments and infrastructure until returns collapsed. Now it's exporting the surplus as dumping, which is why everyone else needs tariffs. Too much capacity and too little capacity both end in a debt problem.
Russia shows the third version: a war economy paying 15%-plus to fund itself.
The 10y10y line is the warning. That's the market's guess at the 10-year rate a decade from now, and in September it ticked up to about 2.4% even as the spot 10-year slid. Investors expect cheap money now and either reflation or bigger risk later, probably from local government debt landing on the central government's books.
It also explains the gold. A central bank in a deflating economy with yields at 1.7% gives up almost nothing by holding metal instead of bonds. China's 22 months of buying is partly insurance against Washington and partly an admission that its own paper pays little, and it's managing its own debt overhang by repressing its own savers.
So the West is repricing its debt higher and China is repressing its debt lower. Neither is healthy. Each has broken the link between credit and real returns, just from opposite ends.
M3 growth isn't the inflation rate. Money supply rises with credit, and in Australia most of that credit goes into existing housing. Which is my point: it inflates the financial ledger and land, not CPI.
The problem is where the money goes, not how much of it there is.
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Be careful when analysing bond yields through UST and extrapolating outcomes too narrowly. The death of the republic is a seductive narrative, but it's simplistic. Itis far more profound than a US collapse.
Robin Brooks is right that debt is the dividing line in this sell-off. But debt is the symptom. The real line runs between countries whose credit has funded productive capacity and countries whose credit has bid up assets that already exist.
Every government with debt bigger than a year's output has the same three exits. It can run surpluses, grow faster than its interest bill, or pay lenders less than the market would. Surpluses are gone almost everywhere, and growth is cancelling out against rising coupons. That leaves the third, and the third is what rising yields are pricing in, in every bond market at once. When they are all doing it, it's a different symptom and disease, though the disease is no less virulent.
Washington isn't defaulting. It's rewriting the conditions around the bond: buybacks, hints of fewer long bonds, the Fed buying bills, a bigger FIMA window so Japan can keep its Treasuries instead of selling them. It did the same in 1933, 1942, 1945, 1951 and 1971. Each time the coupon was paid in full, and a condition/s written around it moved.
Australia shows the same disease without a reserve currency to hide behind. Our banks wrote $3.21 of credit for existing homes for every $1 for industry. When yields reprice, a country can only refinance against what it actually produces, and paper wealth sitting on land can't take that strain. So while you might think the USD-denominated bonds are in the most trouble, the AUD is "saying hold my beer"
So this isn't America falling. The whole postwar settlement, where sovereign paper was the risk-free floor, is being repriced. Central banks have bought gold for nearly two years, China's for 22 months straight, and India has brought 104 tonnes home in six months. They aren't betting on one republic dying. They're insuring against every debtor paying less than it promised.
It's less optimistic than that it's the whole world falling.
Watch the conditions, not the coupon. The bond is the promise. The rights attached to it are the price.
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There's two kinds of countries in the global bond market sell-off: those that are seeing yields rise more than the global average and those that are below. The dividing line is debt. If ever there was an argument for responsible fiscal policy, this is it.
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Elons going to win the AI race . Grokbot capabilities are accelerating everyday it’s also the easiest to use.
The 1951 Treasury / Fed Accord was the divorce. It ended the wartime rate peg and put Fed policy back on its own side of the street from Treasury financing.
Warsh has asked for a successor on the balance sheet. Bessent has already named the long-end buybacks a “Treasury twist,” after the 1961 operation in which Treasury issued short debt and the Fed bought long bonds.
What do they say about history and rhymes ?
Brent and Michael’s Disparate Housewives treats that coordination, plus the bill purchases and the cash account, as a wedding between the two houses, willingly or with a shotgun.
Those who criticise either Bessent or Warsh haven’t sat the table and looked at their cards they’ve been dealt .
2027 is going to be crazy
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You couldn’t make this up because they wouldn’t believe you - Judge Excuses Rape Edition (after confession )
The case is **DPP v Hancock (a pseudonym) [2026] ACTSC 389**. Muller J decided it in the ACT Supreme Court on 6 Oct 2026, read the full judgment, which is available as a [court page]
Offender: He was 16, days short of 17, and is 18 now. He was born in Bhutan, his parents moved to Australia in 2022, and he arrived in February 2025, about six months before the offence.
(Remember Bhutan is Buddhist he would been taught about consent its part of the tradition )
Offence : On 1 Aug 2025, at a house party in Holt, he raped DS, who was 18, in a nearby green belt. It began with consensual kissing. He then pinned her down, ripped her clothes, and penetrated her digitally and with his penis, and forced oral sex while she cried "please stop". He wouldn't let her answer her phone, and it went on for about 20 minutes.
Charge and plea: He pleaded guilty to one count of sexual intercourse without consent, which carries a maximum of 12 years. He had no priors.
Sentence: The judge started at 2 years and cut it 25% for the guilty plea, to **18 months' imprisonment, suspended immediately** on an 18-month supervised good behaviour order.
A conviction was recorded, and his only custody was 1 day. The DPP had asked for full-time jail.
FFS I have no words . No jail time .
Has anyone noticed it’s the lawyers who the biggest lunatics . 5/11 federal greens MP are lawyers .
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BREAKING NEWS: An Australian judge just let a foreign violent rapist escape prison because he found that the rapist didn’t know that rape was a crime in Australia.
Within six months of moving to Australia, a foreign 16 year old teenager committed a brutal violent rape attack.
Australian judge Andrew Muller refused to imprison the 16 year old teenage rapist because he found that the rapist didn’t know that rape was against Australian customs - he had “limited insight into societal norms in Australia.”
In determining the sentence, Justice Muller somehow found that the fact that the rapist didn’t understand that rape was against Australian culture reduced his moral culpability for the rape.
I don’t understand. This is sickening.
In a victim impact statement, the victim described feeling a loss of dignity, confidence and sense of self.
She said she "can no longer call [her] body [her] own" and that night her life was stolen and would forever be changed.
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Great to talk to Jim again. Trump has talked about inflating away the debt a few times now; this is a discussion about how that might happen and how you can protect yourself
Tindale: “You can’t pay the debt. You haven’t got the fiscal discipline. So you inflate it away.”
@ctindale calls it Financial Repression 2.0: higher rates to suck capital in, then lock it, then inflate.
The tell is gold. Central banks are taking it home. $9.5T is rolling from ~1% into ~4.5%. He thinks the regime breaks inside 12 months.
Full interview on Financial Sense Newshour:
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Just another day in the life of Europe . German Spy Chief is a double agent
Shocking, shocking, shocking.
Are there any genuine elites left working only for European interests instead?
You couldn’t make this up because nobody would believe you - Green Grocers Edition ! FFS nothing by halves Mamdani is spending $70m on 5 stores the Australian Greens are going nationalise 200 stores !
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The Australian Greens just came up with a sickeningly retarded plan to import Peronism to Australia and permanently fuck up our inflation rate
They plan to spend $25 billion to forcibly nationalise 200 Coles and Woolworths supermarket stores which would then sell subsidised below cost price groceries
They claim that these subsidised groceries would save the average family $200 a month, at the cost of permanently distorting price signals and therefore locking in permanent high inflation.
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The other thing it does is address the cultural appropriation used politically by the greens and labor . If you watch the Green rhetoric you’d think they represent all the minority causes and they don’t . I sat with a group of indigenous elders a few months ago and none of them voted Green . I know many trans folk who don’t either . Greens have become very skill at appropriating causes for political purposes and they have a limited remit to do so .
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The Greens , Labor and LNP have a problem this add is the equivalent of political drone warfare . A new technology on the political battlefield . Whatever your persuasion this shaming and denouncing habit of the left parties is becoming obsolete . This subtly tells folk to think for themselves , where as the left parties are stuck in their own self referenced moral superiority . People like Shoebridge and Albo are a kind of reversion to the moral superiority of Protestant missionaries appearing more like hell /damnation preachers than persuasive politicians .
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The Greens , Labor and LNP have a problem this add is the equivalent of political drone warfare . A new technology on the political battlefield . Whatever your persuasion this shaming and denouncing habit of the left parties is becoming obsolete . This subtly tells folk to think for themselves , where as the left parties are stuck in their own self referenced moral superiority . People like Shoebridge and Albo are a kind of reversion to the moral superiority of Protestant missionaries appearing more like hell /damnation preachers than persuasive politicians .
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This One Nation ad is absolute gold!
It’s okay to come out as a One Nation voter.
Come on, Victoria. 🇦🇺🧡
This actually happened to my wife and I in 2017 . We ate a beautiful lunch overlooking a riot we sat behind police lines so we watched them gear up before entering the field of play .
Bessent is the House, and Gold is the Tell - The Movie
Digger is a masterpiece a work of genius and this FW is to dumb to understand it
‘DIGGER’ has opened with $8M domestically on a projected budget of $160M-$180M.
Biggest Hollywood box office bomb of 2026 & one of the biggest bombs of all time.
“I can’t code . I just talk to machines “
Should be a T-shirt .
I can't code. I just talk to machines.
Suno → Midjourney → 116 clips (Kling + Wan)
Claude coded every word and graphic on the beat.
I don't know what I'm doing, but this is my first song.
ANY DAY NOW (The Robots Are Coming) ✈️🤖
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Repression is coming, in 1942 you got 2.5% for a UST and the inflation rate was 12%. Trump is signalling -gold -silver - copper -REE - Grains
BREAKING: President Trump says higher US inflation will "pay off" US debt "very rapidly" in response to total US debt rising above $40 trillion.
"I know I'm the best in the world... you can pay off the debt through other means. But the one thing that you can do is pay it off through growth, and we've never had growth like this," Trump said.
US Treasury yields hit a new high of the day after the statement.
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You couldn't make this up because nobody would believe you. Tucker Carlson Edition
Explain to me why everyone has gone loony. What a strange man, and he's convinced he is the smartest one in the room. Is it a lack of a historical education?
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Tucker: “I never understood why 🇬🇧 fought World War 2?” 😕
Rees-Mogg: “It was good vs. evil…We did the right thing…”
Tucker: “Has 🇬🇧 benefitted?”
RM: “We defeated Hitler… We’d all be speaking German…”
Tucker: “Who cares?” 🤔
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