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Andy Constan
@dampedspring
macro & beta @2Graybeards for beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is advice
Joined June 2013
473 Following    567K Followers
Given the bond market move today. It's worth rereading what I wrote "checks notes" 5 hours ago. The bond market is selling off for many reasons but the big one is the trend described below. Yes path is pricing more hikes but that's a symptom not a cause. Though the curve is flattening which mechanically causes ACM like risk premiums to fall it's likely risk premiums at a concept level not a model level are expanding which is the supply/demand: intervention/riskiness story and not the big thing but relevant. Anyway it's a trend day but it's also weighing on stocks and gold which is notable but just a day.
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Stating the obvious NGDP growth like you read about  That's what's happening we all know the reasons  Massive AI investment Easy monetary conditions Fiscal spending  Low private sector leverage at low costs Massive wealth fueling consumption Without regard to pricing Good for assets but really bad for nominal bonds and bad for tips and cash. Awesome for commodities and stocks and okay for gold and crypto/BTC That's what's happening. That's the trend.   Policymakers can kill it but aren't trying. Fiscal/Treasury is tweaking the trend and supporting bonds which is turning already bad environment for cash to truly awful for cash and good for inflation. As long as that trend continues  Dips are bought in commodities (even oil even if peace) stocks, and gold. Rallies are sold in bonds  When does it end?  How does it end? Different ways.  Hike until it ends Let long end do what it needs to do instead of actively suppressing  Ai takes longer to work than expected Private sector financing capacity gets exhausted  Prices become extreme and can't breath in the thin air.  Inflation forces fiscal austerity and consolidation to assuage the populous.  Some or all of this at once Always own beta is always true.
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