Given the bond market move today. It's worth rereading what I wrote "checks notes" 5 hours ago. The bond market is selling off for many reasons but the big one is the trend described below. Yes path is pricing more hikes but that's a symptom not a cause. Though the curve is flattening which mechanically causes ACM like risk premiums to fall it's likely risk premiums at a concept level not a model level are expanding which is the supply/demand: intervention/riskiness story and not the big thing but relevant. Anyway it's a trend day but it's also weighing on stocks and gold which is notable but just a day.
Stating the obvious
NGDP growth like you read about
That's what's happening we all know the reasons
Massive AI investment
Easy monetary conditions
Fiscal spending
Low private sector leverage at low costs
Massive wealth fueling consumption
Without regard to pricing
Good for assets but really bad for nominal bonds and bad for tips and cash. Awesome for commodities and stocks and okay for gold and crypto/BTC
That's what's happening. That's the trend.
Policymakers can kill it but aren't trying. Fiscal/Treasury is tweaking the trend and supporting bonds which is turning already bad environment for cash to truly awful for cash and good for inflation.
As long as that trend continues
Dips are bought in commodities (even oil even if peace) stocks, and gold. Rallies are sold in bonds
When does it end? How does it end?
Different ways.
Hike until it ends
Let long end do what it needs to do instead of actively suppressing
Ai takes longer to work than expected
Private sector financing capacity gets exhausted
Prices become extreme and can't breath in the thin air.
Inflation forces fiscal austerity and consolidation to assuage the populous.
Some or all of this at once
Always own beta is always true.