This is why prediction markets have increasingly been used as accurate tools of forecasting by investors and traders. This @Kalshi study analyzed 2.2 million data points and concluded that probabilities appear to behave like real probabilities, not just market prices: events priced around 30% occur about 30% of the time, 60% events occur about 60% of the time, and so on Other key findings: - "Elections, politics, and finance have the strongest forecasts." The categories with the highest amounts of trading volume tend to also be the most accurate in probabilities - live events do not have future predictive power as prices adjust as events happen in real time - forecasts increase in confidence over time; the closer to the event date, the stronger the chance the probability becomes real-life chance