I’m a fan of perpetual futures and glad to have our firm join @coinbase, @Kalshi, @Payward, @jumptrading and @paradigm in seeking leave to file an amicus brief opposing an effort to block equity perps from trading in the U.S. under joint SEC/CFTC oversight. We want these markets to develop here, with sound risk management and U.S. regulatory oversight. Perpetual futures let investors maintain exposure without the cost and friction of repeatedly rolling contracts. Obviously, how an exchange manages margin, clearing and risk matters enormously. Those are things we should scrutinize with any futures product. But we shouldn’t let disagreements over labels stand in the way of useful innovation.

Mammoth Rock ‘n’ Bowl is a restaurant and bowling alley in Mammoth, California, one of the top ski towns in America. Like the hotels, rentals, and shops around it, the business runs on winter tourism. A bad snow year hits revenue hard. Rock ‘n’ Bowl is especially exposed since they also sponsor a youth snowboarding team. So rather than wait and see, co-owner Ashley Marks asked Kalshi for a market on Mammoth Mountain December snowfall. We built it, and she’s trading $5,000 for a $31,250 payout if there’s weak snow. "We created the snow market with Kalshi because like other mom and pop businesses, we live with seasonal snow risk and wanted to give the community a way to offset some of that uncertainty." - Ashley If the snow comes, business runs like any other winter, and she loses the $5,000 trade. If it doesn’t, the Kalshi position pays out, giving Ashley $26,250 to help offset lost tourist revenue. Either way, Ashley's business is protected.

We are launching a $1 million grant program for up to 50 research projects on midterm prediction markets. Bring your best ideas. We’ll provide any publicly available Kalshi data you need. To enter, quote tweet this post with your research idea and apply on the website.

We’ve just made all of our Midterm model data comparisons public @KalshiResearch. You can see them here: Today, the NYT claimed prediction markets were 'worse' than election models in the lead up to the midterms. But they ignore a few key pieces of the puzzle 🧵

Our complete forecast, which incorporated Kalshi order books and expert ratings, slightly outperformed our legacy forecast. Final Kalshi markets were more accurate than any individual model in races.

For those who don't know @kalshimarketman , he’s behind all the great regulatory work that we’ve done. He’s been with us over 5 years and, like an owl, he’s a nocturnal animal. You can find him in the Kalshi office between 5pm and 8am, feet on his desk, with War and Peace on his table, and the bookmark on the same page for the past many years. I sent Xavier this message in early 2025. As always, he delivered on yet another insane goal. Thank you, sir 🫡

Single stock perps (SSPs) are here. And they're a truly great product. You don’t need to pay rollover fees like with futures, they’re simpler to trade than options, and you can go short just as easy as you can go long. This is one of the most consequential products we’ve launched and I couldn’t be more proud of the team that worked for over a year to bring them to life. Just this morning, since the stealth launch, our users traded over $300m. Grateful to be the ones bringing these to America in a regulated way 💚

Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands. I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.” Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites. Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%. The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels. Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people. Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families. Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full. And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world. For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened. Prediction markets change that. You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it. That changes who holds power over information. Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view. Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it. And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from. Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do. Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.

This LA ice cream shop gets paid when it rains. When it’s under 70°, their sales drop 20–30%. So they started hedging the weather on Kalshi. Oct 21: Rain in the forecast. They bought “Yes” on rain. The rain came, and the hedge returned ~40%. A slow day paid for itself. Read Jason's story in the LA Times below.

prediction markets were spot on last night, if anything they underrated the blue wave slightly. not only were they totally accurate in the aggregate, they delivered results way faster than the polls. another big W for prediction markets after some shaky results in Brazil/Israel.

The favorite on Kalshi won 479 of 487 midterm races so far. That’s 98%, forecasted before a single vote was counted. The markets beat the polls and the models. The data 🧵

THE HUGE WIN FOR PREDICTION MARKETS My only take from last night. Both in the runup to the vote and on election night, the prediction markets did exactly what they were supposed to do. A big confident forecast in the runup, and incredibly timely conveying of data as it dropped.

Last night, millions followed the midterms on Kalshi. We’ll share data on how accurate the markets were soon. But one thing is already clear: more people are using prediction markets to understand what’s happening.

There was also no mass prediction markets miss. In being told that, of 487 prediction markets on individual elections, 479 of the candidates that were leading at 5 PM last night won. 479/489. That’s a 98% accuracy rate before ANY votes are counted.