Yesterday Kalshi priced the Wisconsin Democratic Primary at 95–5. The 5% candidate won. Before the "prediction markets got it wrong" headlines roll in: a 5% probability doesn't mean it won't happen. It means it should happen 1 in 20 times. If 5% candidates never won, the markets would be broken. The Washington Post analyzed prediction market calibration on hundreds of primary races — here's what they found:

Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200. H200, and A100 chips. Forward curves track implied future prices. They are how mature commodity markets form expectations, allocate capital, and manage risk. Energy, interest rates/SOFR, FX, metals, and agricultural markets all rely on market-implied forward prices. Despite becoming one of the key inputs in the global economy, compute has lacked that market-derived infrastructure. Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals, just like oil used to trade OTC between producers and refiners. As compute becomes as fundamental to the economy as energy, the industry will need a similar derivative market to promote efficient price discovery. Prediction markets are uniquely suited to this problem. Compute is not one uniform commodity and spans many chips, grades, tenors, locations, and contract structures. A live prediction market can aggregate those dispersed views into transparent prices that reflect market expectations for different maturities. The opportunity is big. Hyperscalers are spending over $700B on compute this year and the market is expected to grow to $7-10T by 2030. If this market behaves like traditional commodity markets, a liquid derivative market could be 10-20x bigger than the underlying spot market. Compute is still not uniform enough, but this is a step towards standardization as forward curves will help us see the rise and fall of different model prices and how they correlate. The forward curve is a first step. Up next: futures and perps.

We’re funding a new Financial Trading category within NCPG to advance trader health & safety. While financial markets have different incentive structures than casinos and sportsbooks, there is still risk of irresponsible trading, whether it’s active stock trading, short-dated options, levered futures, crypto, or prediction markets. NCPG’s initiative will invest in education and awareness of our responsible trading resources - self assessments, risk management, account limits, and more. As retail participation in markets increase, we have a responsibility to balance free markets and individual responsibility with customer education and safety guardrails. We want to set a new standard for the industry and hope other retail financial platforms join us.

In 2021, Thomas Peterffy invited Tarek to his house and offered to buy Kalshi. At the time, Kalshi had practically no users, no volume, and zero name recognition. But Peterffy saw the vision. Tarek and Luana turned down a potential life-changing acquisition offer. They had deep respect for Peterffy, and the offer was serious money for what was a tiny startup. But the founders believed in Kalshi and were committed to giving it their all. As their trusted partner and supporter, I told them to follow their heart. Five years later, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers are business partners. These full-circle moments are truly special.

Kalshi is the only financial market where Main St. has an edge over Wall St. Gigi, Nicholas, Brandon, Joel, Heather, Paul, and Stephanie have all found their edge and mastered their own niche on Kalshi. Prediction markets are the people’s markets.

Leveraging FEC Data to screen campaign staff: Last week, NPR reported on several anonymous campaign staffers who claimed they had profited from trades they made on prediction markets which were placed ahead of polling drops for the campaigns they worked on. The reporting didn’t say which prediction market they traded on, but at Kalshi, campaign staff have always been prohibited from trading in election markets. All markets are subject to 24/7 surveillance on Kalshi, and we are conducting investigations and enforcement as usual. We also go beyond policing insider trading and try to preemptively block potential insiders from trading where possible. To that end, our team has ingested available data from the Federal Election Commission and is actively screening salaried federal campaign employees from trading on a campaign that they work for. This data helps us prevent or detect trading by campaign insiders. We plan to process similar data published at the state level where it’s available and block state campaign staff from trading on campaigns they’ve been associated with, too. Let me be abundantly clear: we police all kinds of insider trading and market manipulation at Kalshi. Congress is also considering a law specifically criminalizing campaign staff from trading on their own campaigns – but we aren’t waiting for additional legislation or regulation to take action on market integrity. If we find this type of activity on our platform, it will be referred to law enforcement and subject to exchange disciplinary action. I encourage all traders to heed the repeated warnings from companies like Kalshi, and from the CFTC and DOJ: engaging in insider or manipulative trading on federal exchanges can get you into serious trouble, and we are continuously working to prevent, detect, and punish it where we find it.

Kalshi x Madison Square Garden The world’s most famous arena. Where iconic games are played. Where legends perform. Where unforgettable moments happen. A new era for the city.

Prediction markets are a new asset class that will have far reaching implications At scale, they will help civilization allocate capital: eg What will H200 prices be in 3 years? When will the first space datacenter go live? Congrats to Kalshi on this next milestone!

Working at Kalshi has been the highlight of my extremely unusual career. Day in and day out I get to work with brilliant, driven people who get the mission and are completely bought in. We’re now unlocking prediction markets for the massive world of institutional finance. Job’s not finished. 🐺