Drew Breunig
@dbreunig
Writing about and working on AI, DSPy, geo, and data.
Joined March 2008
1.2K Following 9.5K Followers
What galls me about the “prediction markets give us access to better information” argument:
The idea is that insiders/experts will be incentivized to bet, delivering info to all.
There are few experts.
There are SO MANY people who enjoy or are addicted to gambling.
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@KarimAttal45765 Regardless of your view on who's favored, it's pretty clear Kalshi is not actually reading what those drops mean and are reacting to headline changes in raw vote totals. There's no need for this kind of oscillation
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