ECMWF from Europe GFS from the US ICON from Germany JMA from Japan UKMO from the UK Five independent weather models looking at the same question For weather prediction markets, the median can be the same while the quality of that number can be completely different If all five models give you around 85°F, you have five independent forecasts pointing in roughly the same direction But if the median is still 85°F while the forecasts range from 80°F to 90°F, then 85°F is just the middle of a disagreement Same market Same median Completely different signal

>> be @Polymarket >> 1998: Shayne Coplan born, Upper West Side. public school kid >> 2013: age 14. cold-emails the SEC. wants to build his own stock exchange >> 2014: buys Ethereum at $0.30 >> 2019(around): drops out of NYU. moves to Lower East Side >> 2019: he wrote economist Hanson a paragraphs-long email proclaiming he wanted "to be the person to bring prediction markets to life" Hanson ignored it >> 2020: COVID hits. builds a prediction market alone in his apartment first markets: will there be a vaccine by December? >> October 2020: raises $4M. Naval Ravikant writes the check >> 2020 election: correctly calls Biden weeks before anyone else >> 2022: CFTC fines you $1.4M. calls you an unregistered derivatives platform block all US users. pivot international hire the former CFTC chair as your advisor >> June 2023: Titan submersible goes missing. someone opens a market "Will it be found by June 23?" goes viral everyone discovers you exist >> 2024: $70M raised. Vitalik and Peter Thiel both write checks Nate Silver joins as advisor election night >> 2024: every poll shows a toss-up Polymarket shows Trump. clearly Trump wins one French trader moves your markets more than every pollster combined >> November 2024: FBI raids Coplan's apartment. seizes his devices Polymarket calls it "obvious political retribution" >> October 2025: NYSE's parent company invests $2B. values you at $8B >> October 2025: Coplan becomes youngest self-made billionaire. age 27 >> March 2026: $600M follow-on. valuation hits $9B The kid who emailed the SEC at 14 built the platform that made every poll irrelevant. He still doesn't have a fully regulated US exchange. Working on it Video: Forbes