JUST IN: T-Mobile CEO says SpaceX’s strategy is shape-shifting and calls satellite an inferior version of fixed wireless
Srini Gopalan: “I saw your note as well in terms of the shape-shifting nature of SpaceX’s strategy. So it’s hard to refer to them now as a satellite provider or a satellite provider that is going to build terrestrial. So hard to think about whether this is SpaceX alone or all of satellites.”
“So let me answer that question in its broadest terms, right? Here’s the way we think about broadband. We’ve got a great product in FWA and really in many ways, except for some deep rural parts, satellite is an inferior version of FWA with even more constraints in terms of things like what is the size of the beam, right? So I don’t see the synergy there between FWA and satellite.”
“In many ways, two-thirds of our FWA customers come from dense urban areas. We see huge growth opportunities in those areas still, all under the fallow capacity model. So we don’t really see a synergistic opportunity with satellite providers, and that’s a broader piece.”
“We see it as a complementary product, very much in the nature of T-Satellite. But if you’re thinking of that in broader MVNO terms, I think it comes back to the philosophy with which we operate MVNOs, which is what is the incremental TAM that something opens out? And am I willing to get into a deal for the incremental TAM?”
“If it’s a complementary product, I’m very happy to look at a resale arrangement, which is exactly what T-Satellite was, which gets built into it. But an MVNO is a wholly different thing. So I hope that clarifies where our head’s at on MVNOs and more broadly satellite.”
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BREAKING: Verizon CEO admits he assumes everything SpaceX says it will do, it will do, and execute flawlessly, and says he takes its terrestrial moves "quite seriously"
Dan Schulman (CEO): “I also operate under the assumption that everything SpaceX says they will do, they will do, and that they will execute flawlessly. That’s my operating assumption on it. I think to assume anything else, makes no sense from my perspective."
"And everything that we’ve seen so far, all of their announcements, everything we’re hearing in the market, and I’ll talk about that in just a second, is so far the path that we’ve basically predicted that they would do."
"We always knew that they needed a terrestrial network to have any chance at providing a competitive service. I don’t really need to re-review the satellite beam physics, but just suffice to say that without a terrestrial network, their addressable market for broadband services is relatively small.”
"It’s in very rural areas, and their service just can’t compete with a terrestrial network. In suburban and urban areas where like 98% of our revenues are, we’re somewhere between 100 to 1,000 times more efficient than they are. And when you think about wireless, it’s even more difficult with them to compete on a satellite basis."
"And so I think that SpaceX realizes this, and they’re exploring a potential path to creating a terrestrial network. It’s not surprising they said it on their call, so I think we should take it quite seriously.”
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