According to CME FedWatch, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by September is 34.2%. The significance lies in the fact that this uncertainty may support the stability of cryptocurrencies in the short term, but high inflation could still put pressure on risk assets.

The BTC valuation cornerstone model shows that the current market is neither a typical bubble top nor an undervalued area. The data in the chart shows that the market value of BTC is approximately $1.29 trillion, of which the realized market value is $1.06 trillion, accounting for 75.3% of the market value. This indicates that the current valuation of BTC is largely supported by the real on-chain cost basis, rather than simply relying on speculative sentiment. The bedrock value is approximately $91.7 billion, accounting for 7.1%. The bedrock multiple has reached 14.0x, indicating that BTC has clearly moved away from the bottom valuation zone, and the current position can no longer be viewed using the undervaluation logic of a bear market. The air premium was $225.7 billion, accounting for 17.6%. This level indicates that there is a certain sentiment premium in the market, but it has not yet entered the extreme bubble state commonly seen at the top of historical bull markets. MVRV is currently at 1.21x, indicating that the market as a whole has unrealized gains, but the extent of these gains is still relatively mild. Compared to the true peak of the cycle, the current on-chain valuation is not significantly overheated. Based on the latest price, BTC is still fluctuating around $64,000, which is close to the level on July 10th shown in the chart, indicating that there is not much change in the short-term structure. My assessment is that BTC remains strong in the long term, and the on-chain funding base has not deteriorated significantly, but it is not advisable to blindly chase the rally at the current level. Next, we'll focus on two key points: First, whether Realised Cap can continue to rise confirms the continued accumulation of real funds. Second, we need to be wary of the rapid expansion of Air Premium. If the air premium continues to increase, we should be cautious that the market is entering a phase of accelerated sentiment. The current strategy is more suitable to wait for confirmation of a breakout or a pullback to buy. The trend hasn't broken, but the risk-reward ratio is no longer as good as in the bottom range.

$BTC Short-Term Market Analysis Based on the current market conditions, this appears more like a rebound after a sharp drop than a bottom reversal. The market hasn't undergone sufficient accumulation at the bottom, nor has it experienced an extreme crash to clear liquidity. Therefore, the probability of directly starting a new bull market is low. It's more likely that the market will consolidate and form a bottom through a period of fluctuation. It's not yet possible to confirm that the bottom has been reached, but we are getting closer and closer to the true bottom-fishing area. It's not too late to consider increasing your position when the key confirmation signal appears, and I will provide guidance at that time. BTC's short-term price retraced to the 60-day moving average and found support, currently remaining within a valid rebound structure. As long as 61300 holds, the overall strategy remains to buy on dips, with resistance levels at 63400 and 64200, and strong resistance at 65500. For ETH, the key level to watch is the strong resistance around 1850; whether it can break through this level will directly target the 2000 mark.

bitcoin:native shares a very classic long-term macro on-chain indicator for Bitcoin: STH-RP to TMMP Ratio The ratio of the realized price to the real market average price for short-term holders This indicator clearly reflects the interplay between short-term market speculation and the fair value of the overall market. Current core data: -BTC current price and short-term costs: Currently, both values ​​are around 77.4K. This means that short-term investors who entered the market in recent months, The overall situation is at the break-even point. -Ratio trend: The current ratio is 0.8998, and the 7-day and 30-day moving averages are showing a fluctuating downward trend. On-chain data is clear. Short-term holders' cost basis is converging towards the true market average. The market as a whole is in a phase of deflating the bubble and clearing out speculative capital. Historically, when this ratio spikes, it usually corresponds to a period of market overheating. When this ratio falls below the 0.75 red line (the historical lows of 2015, 2018, and 2022), it indicates the establishment of an absolute bear market bottom. Currently, this ratio is at a relatively neutral to low level of around 0.9. And the trend is still downward. This indicates that the market's blind optimism has been effectively suppressed. The chips are undergoing a thorough turnover. At the break-even point where short-term holders find it unprofitable and even begin to feel anxious. It is often a crucial window for accumulating strength and choosing a direction. Be patient and watch for further crossovers of the cost line. #Onchaindata# #welinkBTC# bitcoin:native