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万联welinkBTC(🦄,🦄) | 🔶 逍遥游版
@fly_welinkBTC
Digital on-chain analysis @OnChainMind @ForeDex_Global Gold V Certified #binance# Square Genesis Streamer #BillionLive# Ambassador #Turboflow# , #SafePal#, #Surf#
Joined March 2021
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The BTC valuation cornerstone model shows that the current market is neither a typical bubble top nor an undervalued area. The data in the chart shows that the market value of BTC is approximately $1.29 trillion, of which the realized market value is $1.06 trillion, accounting for 75.3% of the market value. This indicates that the current valuation of BTC is largely supported by the real on-chain cost basis, rather than simply relying on speculative sentiment. The bedrock value is approximately $91.7 billion, accounting for 7.1%. The bedrock multiple has reached 14.0x, indicating that BTC has clearly moved away from the bottom valuation zone, and the current position can no longer be viewed using the undervaluation logic of a bear market. The air premium was $225.7 billion, accounting for 17.6%. This level indicates that there is a certain sentiment premium in the market, but it has not yet entered the extreme bubble state commonly seen at the top of historical bull markets. MVRV is currently at 1.21x, indicating that the market as a whole has unrealized gains, but the extent of these gains is still relatively mild. Compared to the true peak of the cycle, the current on-chain valuation is not significantly overheated. Based on the latest price, BTC is still fluctuating around $64,000, which is close to the level on July 10th shown in the chart, indicating that there is not much change in the short-term structure. My assessment is that BTC remains strong in the long term, and the on-chain funding base has not deteriorated significantly, but it is not advisable to blindly chase the rally at the current level. Next, we'll focus on two key points: First, whether Realised Cap can continue to rise confirms the continued accumulation of real funds. Second, we need to be wary of the rapid expansion of Air Premium. If the air premium continues to increase, we should be cautious that the market is entering a phase of accelerated sentiment. The current strategy is more suitable to wait for confirmation of a breakout or a pullback to buy. The trend hasn't broken, but the risk-reward ratio is no longer as good as in the bottom range.
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