Rafael
@n3ocortex
Ex-neuroscientist | Python Maximalist | Swing HODLer | Data Scientist | Co-founder @glassnode
741 Following 50.6K Followers
A mere 0.7% of $BTC miner revenue comes from transaction fees, and has been sub 1% for almost a year.
Bitcoin was below $400 the last time fee share was this low.
Security budget funded almost exclusively by block subsidy.
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1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here.
Participation and demand continue to look pretty thin.
A few datapoints I’m watching, and what I’d like to see turn around for a sustainable recovery 🧵👇
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The Great AI Migration
#BTC# hash rate down nearly 20% since its October peak
As requested: the cycle position composite as a time-series 👇
The #Bitcoin# Cycle Position Heatmap
Red when euphoric, blue during capitulation.
Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor.
Always look for confluence when aiming to call a bottom.
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$BTC volume sent from long-term holders in profit to exchanges has faded and sits near its lowest since early 2023.
LTH profit-taking has effectively switched off.
Institutional demand isn’t absorbing new $BTC supply – it’s adding to the overhang.
ETFs shed 71.6K BTC over the past month, DATs added just 7.5K.
Adjusted for issuance, combined flows are −77K #BTC#.
Until this flips positive, any recovery is fighting net wrapper supply.
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