Rafael
@n3ocortex
Ex-neuroscientist | Python Maximalist | Swing HODLer | Data Scientist | Opinions my own | Co-founder @glassnode
769 Following 51.1K Followers
we're right in the middle of the window where previous #btc# cycles bottomed.
drawdown 13 months after the top:
• 2013: -71.0%
• 2017: -79.5%
• 2021: -74.6%
today: -34.8%
"outflows from ETFs are signal"
wrong. people need to stop treating ETF flows as a leading indicator.
ETF flows chase price.
they line up with the price move that already happened (r≈0.36) and say almost nothing about the next one.
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Address reuse accounts for 4.33M BTC: the address has already spent, so its key is public. Moving those coins to a fresh address ends the exposure.
The other 1.94M BTC are exposed by script type: 1.71M in P2PK, of which 1.10M is attributed to Satoshi, and 222K in Taproot.
2/6
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6.26M #BTC#, or 31.2% of supply, sits behind a public key that is already visible on-chain.
At least that much would have to move in a migration to addresses whose keys are still hidden behind a hash.
The share is up from 24.8% in early 2021 and back at 2016 levels.
🧵 1/6
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@glassnode here's how each cross played out, lined up on the signal day.
a year later $BTC's median was 3.3x and even the weakest was up 50%. after two years the median was 7x.
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bullish confirmation signal on $BTC
today the 30DMA reclaimed the 50WMA for the first time since 2023
the previous crosses confirmed a bull
$BTC up almost 50% from the june low, and the coinbase premium is still negative.
The US bid hasn’t even properly arrived yet.
$BTC long-term holders spent most of this year selling at a loss. that has now been slowly flipping back to profit.
typical of past cycles on the way out of the bear, yet well before anything that felt like a bull.
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Bitcoin 30DMA is about 2% below the 50WMA.
Since 2012, it has crossed above it six times.
If $BTC just holds here around $80k, the next crossing is about 6 days away...
don’t miss out on this week’s edition to understand the current market view across ETFs, treasuries, capital flows, options etc!
$BTC has slipped below the bottom of the range.
That floor aligned with the True Market Mean and price needs to reclaim it for conditions to remain bullish.
If it does not, the short-term holder cost basis near $70k becomes increasingly likely.
Read more below 👇
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"The market has left its value zone without becoming expensive. A majority of indicators crossing above 50 would be the cleanest confirmation that the cycle position has turned." $BTC
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Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band.
Moving above this level, would indicate a shift in long term market structure.
A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs.
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congrats to everyone who's been in $ZEC this year
The median altcoin is 58% below its price at the BTC high.
The privacy sector is 213% above it, and not only because of $ZEC.
$5B on $IBIT and $14B on Deribit expire later this month, most of it calls struck at $80K and up.
Spot at $79K.
The options market is positioned for a move above $80K that spot has not made yet. ~3 weeks to find out.
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Bitcoin has stalled below long-term overhead supply.
The trading range is well-defined by two cost basis clusters.
Liquidation clusters also provide significant confluence.
Read our latest Week On Chain Article
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bitcoin:native ETF inflows came back with the rally, but volumes didn't (yet).
About $2B a day changing hands versus $4-5 billion in earlier inflow waves. Similar story as spot: the money shows up, the activity hasn't.
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Bitcoin has stalled below long-term overhead supply.
The trading range is well-defined by two cost basis clusters.
Liquidation clusters also provide significant confluence.
Read our latest Week On Chain Article
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Still wanna see spot volume across CEXs pick up before calling this move more sustainable.
Digital gold is looking pretty literal right now.
Debasement trade in play.
Bitcoin. Gold. Land.
Protect yourself from the money printer.
$BTC cycle position back in markup
Buyers have stopped waiting for a better price. Haven't seen them this impatient in years. #BTC#
Well, that flipped quickly.
25-delta skew is now at its lowest levels of the year across all tenors. The front end (1 week + 1 month) even turned negative.
$BTC traders now paying up for near-term upside rather than downside protection.
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