Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasury yield? Maybe not, but for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion that if the 10-year yield were to fall 100 bps, an investor would make 11.9%, while only losing 1.9% if the yield were to rise to 6%.
Uranium/nuclear energy continues to pick up steam.
Countries are starting to understand that there are few options when it comes to clean energy that actually produces on a large scale for decades.
As disturbing as the near-perfect price analog is between the semis today and the internet stocks 26 years ago (see below), the critical difference is that earnings were non-existent in 1999 and 2000 while they are booming today. So, at forward P/E of 20x, there is no valuation bubble as far as I can see. If the AI theme unravels at some point, my guess is that it will be because investors are choking on the firehose of capital raises as opposed to being deceived by earnings that don’t materialize.
Hiring strengthened for a third consecutive week as private employers, per @adpresearch, added an average of 20,000 jobs per week for 4-weeks ended 9/5/26
Investor allocations to Bonds has drifted to the lowest level since...
*checks*
oh, just immediately prior to the Global Financial Crisis.
(and similar to dot com peak)
This is ..fine, right?
😬