steve hsu
@hsu_steve
Physicist, AI Founder, Manifold Podcast
Joined June 2010
0 Following 48.8K Followers
Reminder: AI capabilities are advancing rapidly AND we might be in the midst of a huge capex financial bubble...
AI adoption (= revenues, productivity) can lag capabilities by years. Depreciation on GPUs is of order years (4? 6?) so a lag like this is enough to DESTROY leveraged (debt-fueled) bets 🤔
Remember, HUMANS ARE IN THE LOOP. They can delay adoption or power supplies to DCs or create regulatory constraints. The sensitivity timescale for LEVERAGED BETS is smaller than the delays humans can impose on AI adoption/scaling.
Even if humans don't DELIBERATELY delay productive use of AI, human leaders and organizations may STILL TAKE YEARS to figure out how to effectively use AI in the real economy ...
Show more
BOTH THINGS CAN BE TRUE AT THE SAME TIME:
1. AI capabilities are real and advancing rapidly
2. It will take longer than singularity or fast-takeoff people think for AI to affect real productivity in the economy, or generate $trillion revenues for AI labs (although capex investment for the future already drives this much money into data center and semiconductor infrastructure).
#2# is related to human gatekeeping and outright resistance to technology, as well as the difficulty in understanding the best way to use AI in practical settings. It can take years for existing companies (let alone educational institutions) to adapt to new technology.
Show more
