Over the last 4 years, I’ve learned a few brutal truths about business:
1. Running a company is really hard.
2. The best product and best tech does not always win.
3. Success is never 100% in your control, but your micro and macro decisions as a founder can improve your odds.
I have a lot of respect for anyone who’s attempted to build a business and a lot of empathy for anyone who folds. Sometimes it’s bad luck, sometimes it’s a skill issue, sometimes it’s timing and usually it’s a combination of all three.
If Phoenix fails, it will definitely be all of the above.
@0xShitTrader and I have made a lot of unforced errors over the last 4 years. I like to believe that we are still standing because our instances of strong decision making and execution counteracted our mistakes. But all things considered, we have been extremely fortunate.
@PhoenixTrade is objectively very far from “winning”. Designing the best microstructure won’t make it win. Solana Foundation shipping supportive tweets definitely won’t magically make it win. Adding incremental new UI features won’t make it win.
If Phoenix wins it will be because:
• Our near delusional, high conviction investment to put the entire matching engine and margin system on
@solana actually ends up making the product meaningfully better
• Our team executes well enough to acquire loyal users and find deep PMF
• The market environment for perps trading not only recovers but thrives and Phoenix’s (and Solana’s) infrastructure is robust enough to handle the next wave of on-chain traders
Building this product and company has been the most challenging accomplishment of my career, but the job is far from over. To the extent that I can control it, I intend to win on my own terms.
SF can’t make your product succeed. They help in the gtm launch of a product by getting the word out, that’s about it.
If another product launch happens that competes with Phoenix, then SF can try to help that team get of the ground. The amount of attention and the net effect of SF help doesn’t depend on SF, it depends on the product. Is it new, is it good? Do people like the narrative? All those things are what actually drives traction.
Everyone heard of Phoenix after the launch, it’s entirely on the Phoenix team to actually convert the attention into users.
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