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Joe
@joedab12
Sold my finance co in 2021, now trade/invest full time. Specialty is finding semi/AI infra inflection points before the breakout. Lots of receipts. Zero AI slop
Joined March 2013
498 Following    10K Followers
When someone has a take like this and doesnt even discuss actual numbers, it always makes me more confident about my thesis. Yes it will take time to play out. Demand for optical networking isn't going anywhere and AAOI is in the midst of a hockey stick ramp, it's hard to understand but the SIMPLEST way to look at is this. $LITE just said they will have $40 in EPS power in FY28 which starts mid 27. Analysts are expecting $LITE to do between $10-11b in REVENUE in Calendar 2028. LITE market cap is 82b. $AAOI is ramping to $471m a month by mid-late 27(I expect a few month delay, its only natural and fine by me, which is why my position has been trimmed on the way up and been rebuying on shakeouts). That should take them to $6b or more in revenue in calendar 2028 vs LITE 10-12b, lets just say they hit 12b which is an outlier estimate...AAOI will do half their revenue. AAOI market cap is prob 9-10b with recent ATM usage, lets use 10b to be safe(could be lower)....1/8th the market cap of LITE but half the revenue in 2028. And on top of that AAOI will have more American capacity than LITE at that time. And there is a lot of talk about banning chinese transceivers starting with 3.2t which is a 2028 timeline ramp-perfectly aligns with AAOI's hockey stick ramp. Am I saying buy AAOI today? Not necessarily. I am saying run the numbers yourself and ask yourself how forward looking are YOU willing to be, and what can happen to the share price if the market changes its view on how forward looking it is willing to be? With yields climbing, markets look forward less so companies at more mature stage like LITE and COHR obviously dont get hit as hard. But when the market cap is 1/8th of LITE and the revenue will be roughly half of LITE in 2028 with more American capacity, the bull case is easy to see. I tried telling you all at 30-40 last year this would happen. I predicted 150 by 2027, it overshot and got to nearly 250, I dumped a lot of shares early but kept a core of 1k shares under 40. I have been NIBBLING dips under 100 and even some at 102-103 but this position will be built over quarters, not weeks or days.
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Some thoughts on $AAOI. And why I never bought the stock and probably never will. When I researched the company back in March, there’s this one thing that kept popping up in my mind. The sense that $AAOI happens to be at the right place at the right time, but that in itself doesn’t make them a high quality business. I mean, demand is there. We can all see that. But in my view, $AAOI basically serves as a spill over for higher quality businesses like $LITE, $COHR & $MRVL who can’t fulfill demand. So why would you want to own $AAOI if you could own $MRVL for example? Genuine question. If you have a view on this, let me know! The other part is management. I won’t go into too much detail here for the sake of post length, but I’ve never seen a management team receive such bad reviews on Glassdoor: • 1.7 of 5 stars • 1% approve the CEO • 7% recommend working there Out of 124 reviews. You can’t get any worse than that. If you invest in $AAOI, I’m really curious if that’s just a risk you’re willing to take or maybe didn’t know about in the first place? Feel free to tag others who might invest in $AAOI because I’m really curious about other people’s opinions on this.
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