Meanwhile Argachi is in New York trying to cut a deal. Whatever bro.
Happy 5.1% 10Y America 🎉. Mashallah. Celebrate: it’s the floor two years out.
You wanted Iran dragged back to 1970s? Nobody told you Iran isn’t for arrogant amateurs? We’ll return you to 1970s rates, plus high gas prices, diesel shortages and bell-bottoms. Enjoy the nostalgia!
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First Muse, now this. Get ready for an agentic world.
$INTC $RMBS $INOD $SIMO $DRAM $MU $AAOI $VICR $SMTC $CLS $CBRS $AMD $LITE $ALAB $META
Here we go.
U.S. AND IRAN EXPLORE PHASED HORMUZ DEAL
U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement to end the conflict, Reuters reports.
The potential first step would see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade, potentially alongside access to frozen Iranian assets.
The main obstacle remains sequencing: neither side wants to surrender its leverage first, leaving negotiations fragile.
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He's right and $RMBS is a hidden beneficiary most dont realize. Almost every RMBS post I see labels it as an IP play and disregards their product biz that is going to grow FASTER than the CPU market. They'll love it at 150 again.
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When someone has a take like this and doesnt even discuss actual numbers, it always makes me more confident about my thesis. Yes it will take time to play out. Demand for optical networking isn't going anywhere and AAOI is in the midst of a hockey stick ramp, it's hard to understand but the SIMPLEST way to look at is this.
$LITE just said they will have $40 in EPS power in FY28 which starts mid 27. Analysts are expecting $LITE to do between $10-11b in REVENUE in Calendar 2028. LITE market cap is 82b.
$AAOI is ramping to $471m a month by mid-late 27(I expect a few month delay, its only natural and fine by me, which is why my position has been trimmed on the way up and been rebuying on shakeouts). That should take them to $6b or more in revenue in calendar 2028 vs LITE 10-12b, lets just say they hit 12b which is an outlier estimate...AAOI will do half their revenue.
AAOI market cap is prob 9-10b with recent ATM usage, lets use 10b to be safe(could be lower)....1/8th the market cap of LITE but half the revenue in 2028.
And on top of that AAOI will have more American capacity than LITE at that time. And there is a lot of talk about banning chinese transceivers starting with 3.2t which is a 2028 timeline ramp-perfectly aligns with AAOI's hockey stick ramp.
Am I saying buy AAOI today? Not necessarily. I am saying run the numbers yourself and ask yourself how forward looking are YOU willing to be, and what can happen to the share price if the market changes its view on how forward looking it is willing to be? With yields climbing, markets look forward less so companies at more mature stage like LITE and COHR obviously dont get hit as hard.
But when the market cap is 1/8th of LITE and the revenue will be roughly half of LITE in 2028 with more American capacity, the bull case is easy to see.
I tried telling you all at 30-40 last year this would happen. I predicted 150 by 2027, it overshot and got to nearly 250, I dumped a lot of shares early but kept a core of 1k shares under 40. I have been NIBBLING dips under 100 and even some at 102-103 but this position will be built over quarters, not weeks or days.
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Some thoughts on $AAOI.
And why I never bought the stock and probably never will.
When I researched the company back in March, there’s this one thing that kept popping up in my mind.
The sense that $AAOI happens to be at the right place at the right time, but that in itself doesn’t make them a high quality business.
I mean, demand is there. We can all see that.
But in my view, $AAOI basically serves as a spill over for higher quality businesses like $LITE, $COHR & $MRVL who can’t fulfill demand.
So why would you want to own $AAOI if you could own $MRVL for example?
Genuine question. If you have a view on this, let me know!
The other part is management. I won’t go into too much detail here for the sake of post length, but I’ve never seen a management team receive such bad reviews on Glassdoor:
• 1.7 of 5 stars
• 1% approve the CEO
• 7% recommend working there
Out of 124 reviews.
You can’t get any worse than that.
If you invest in $AAOI, I’m really curious if that’s just a risk you’re willing to take or maybe didn’t know about in the first place?
Feel free to tag others who might invest in $AAOI because I’m really curious about other people’s opinions on this.
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$INOD holding up well after the $META event yesterday. I'm sure $GOOG will be doubling or tripling down on $INOD services seeing what they've been able to do for META. Did sell some 73 and 76 strike calls expiring tomorrow on half my position here. Will be nibbling more over coming weeks, I do expect market volatility and deeper pullbacks. Still holding 20-25% cash.
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$INOD I took a small starter in this name yesterday after seeing how they were working with $META and all the frontier makers and hyperscalers. Did some research last night and tripled down today. Still a small'ish position for me but will give it time to play out. Here are some of the keys that pushed me into buying more today that I found last night.
the revenue/eps estimates are from a Wedbush report in June-I fully expect those numbers to get beat big time with the traction Muse has and now everyone else playing catchup. 2027 will likely be over 50% YoY growth from 2026. Enterprise adoption of agents is still in its infancy. Or as the Viavi ceo would say, "pregame show."
The "guardrails" and safety issues people are pushing the last month are a huge benefit to $INOD. Likely ends up running wild at some point next few months at only 2.3b market cap.
11.5% of shares owned by insiders and 61% by institutions, it aint no VICR but this is well above average.
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$VICR waiting for chartists to talk about how congested the $280 area is and it will be tough to break through. Yea yea I agree it wont be AS easy to slice through as 230-240 but the combination of announcing the 2nd fab and land for 5-6 more, and the new license with the LEADING AI OEM last week will have this thing over 400 next couple mos. I get if you're daytrading and dont even know what this company does, go ahead and sell, plenty of big money waiting to scoop up your shares so they can sell along with the CEO between 404 and 800
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Ya dont say....
Trump banning diesel exports? No way this actually happens IMO, whole supply chain would get wrecked.
@JensenHuang calling him to talk him out of it by lunch.
Thats why yields are spiking and markets are pulling back.
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$INOD I took a small starter in this name yesterday after seeing how they were working with $META and all the frontier makers and hyperscalers. Did some research last night and tripled down today. Still a small'ish position for me but will give it time to play out. Here are some of the keys that pushed me into buying more today that I found last night.
the revenue/eps estimates are from a Wedbush report in June-I fully expect those numbers to get beat big time with the traction Muse has and now everyone else playing catchup. 2027 will likely be over 50% YoY growth from 2026. Enterprise adoption of agents is still in its infancy. Or as the Viavi ceo would say, "pregame show."
The "guardrails" and safety issues people are pushing the last month are a huge benefit to $INOD. Likely ends up running wild at some point next few months at only 2.3b market cap.
11.5% of shares owned by insiders and 61% by institutions, it aint no VICR but this is well above average.
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$TLT I know most people in my sphere are only looking at AI/Semi stocks as thats mainly what I do. But put some of your mom/grandmas money in TLT here if you love her. Bessent coming to save the day tomorrow.
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$VICR all dips will be brief after the barrage of news the last few weeks. $CBRS + $GOOG make this a $600+ stock, I have no concerns nibbling every pullback.
As a reminder, the CEO owns almost 21m shares and the top 50 institutional holders own another 19m shares. There are only 46m total shares outstanding.
The CEO will be selling relatively small amounts ever $4 increment between $404 and $800 per share. Those who dont know Vicor exists or what vertical power delivery is yet, will likely be buying shares between $404 and 800.
I'm not even going to post what the numbers look like with $NVDA on board today.
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Trump banning diesel exports? No way this actually happens IMO, whole supply chain would get wrecked.
@JensenHuang calling him to talk him out of it by lunch.
Thats why yields are spiking and markets are pulling back.
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$VICR
LEADING AI OEM signed a license last week
Heres Jensen telling us how $NVDA constantly pushes the laws of physics…
and theres Vicor CEO Patrizio Vinciarelli telling you which laws of physics are limiting current power delivery architectures.
I am no rocket scientist but has anyone figured out who the LEADING AI OEM is yet? LOL
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$VICR here's $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang telling everyone they should be buying Vicor stock indirectly.
$VICR $CBRS dont forget Cerebras wafer scale engines are uniquely enabled by Vicor power modules. Cerebras has huge deals with OpenAI $AMZN and $AMD for disaggregated inference that start rolling out late this year/early next year. You know what else they have? Another hyperscaler deal around the corner...
Every piece of good news that comes out for CBRS will have an impact on VICR share price. Cerebras likely in talks with $GOOG or maybe its $META or $MSFT but he was confident enough to say revenue is coming mid 27 for a deal that isn't even announced yet.
Combine more news like this with the fact that over 90% of the shares are locked up between the CEO/Founder and the institutions and we have a beautiful setup. Fundamentally this stock is worth $600 on CBRS + one hyperscaler ramping gen2 VPD late 27/early 28. Mechanically, this type of shortage of shares can send it a lot higher or get it there sooner.
Dont even get me started on $NVDA coming on board.
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Insane performance uniquely enabled by Vicor vertical power delivery. $VICR VPD is already inside Cerebras helping deliver the ridiculous amount of power that wafer-scale compute needs. And this is still 1st Gen VPD.
Cerebras has their Supernova event next week, where I expect we’ll learn more about its next-gen wafer-scale system which is likely powered by 2nd gen Vicor VPD.
Vicor is also sampling 2nd gen VPD to OEMs + hyperscalers this quarter and seems confident they will land a few. AMD and Google look like very real possibilities which is why Vicor is already planning Fab 2, potentially 2-3x the size of Fab 1.
They aren't building that for Cerebras alone.
$CBRS $VICR $AMD $GOOG $NVDA
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👀👀👀$INOD looks like it can go a lot higher
@Gaetano2026 are you still in this one?
NEW: Innodata, a data-labeling company based out of New Jersey, reportedly has one big customer: Meta. $INOD recently disclosed helping that customer with the “personalization of long-horizon agents.”
Is Innodata involved in Muse?
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$VICR in case you want someone elses' view on VICR since not many people on X are intimately knowledgeable about the company.
I would imagine analysts will revise price targets higher once we have details on the new license signed last week. Meanwhile here's a great overview from 2 firms who have been covering Vicor for a while.
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$VICR leading ai chip oem signs license
Who is the leader? Hey
@firstadopter who is the ai chip leader outta curiousity? They just licensed Vicor tech
$VICR
how many chip "oems" are there in AI? $NVDA $AMD $CBRS am I missing any? We know this license isnt CBRS. The one in may was likely AMD and this is likely $NVDA IMHO and this likely came about after they saw the lawsuits recently filed against $MPWR Delta etc etc on the 734 patent for VPD This is huge for future implications in gen2 VPD, even if the dollar amount of this license is low.
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Insane performance uniquely enabled by Vicor vertical power delivery. $VICR VPD is already inside Cerebras helping deliver the ridiculous amount of power that wafer-scale compute needs. And this is still 1st Gen VPD.
Cerebras has their Supernova event next week, where I expect we’ll learn more about its next-gen wafer-scale system which is likely powered by 2nd gen Vicor VPD.
Vicor is also sampling 2nd gen VPD to OEMs + hyperscalers this quarter and seems confident they will land a few. AMD and Google look like very real possibilities which is why Vicor is already planning Fab 2, potentially 2-3x the size of Fab 1.
They aren't building that for Cerebras alone.
$CBRS $VICR $AMD $GOOG $NVDA
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$VICR here's $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang telling everyone they should be buying Vicor stock indirectly.