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Joseph Wang
@josephwang
The Second Edition of Central Banking 101 is available now! YouTube:
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Tremendous political pressure to taco now. Everything will surge when that happens.
Waller signals he would hike in September if upcoming CPI signals a stall in disinflation.
Guys this is why yields are so high - mystery solved!
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IMO Warsh all but promised a September hike at his Jackson Hole debut. If he doesn't follow through he will have successfully killed forward guidance (also, he can just cancel all his upcoming pressers).
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Markets Weekly August 29, 2026 September Hike Coming
Good job Warsh. Long bond approves.
Best thing kevin could do to lower rates is to reaffirm Fed commitment to PCE until it hits 2%. Suggesting an index change last meeting was shocking and revealed low levels of competence. Note kevin is already famous for poor judgement by being hawkish into and even after the GFC
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Best thing kevin could do to lower rates is to reaffirm Fed commitment to PCE until it hits 2%. Suggesting an index change last meeting was shocking and revealed low levels of competence. Note kevin is already famous for poor judgement by being hawkish into and even after the GFC
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U.S. is highly, highly dependent on imported goods. Not just rare earths, but basically everything. The goods trade deficit is over $1t. Without these imports inflation would surge, and living standards plummet. That is why big talk on sanctioning China is nonsense.
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The world is highly dependent on the dollar system, but the U.S. is also highly dependent on imported goods. That is why this is theatre.
*BESSENT ON CHINA-IRAN: NO ONE IS ABOVE REACH OF US SANCTIONS
Don't fight the Treasury.
SCOOP: Treasury Secretary @SecScottBessent will do whatever it takes to "put the fear of God" into the bond vigilantes, shorting the long end of the curve in an attempt to drive the 10 year yield to 5%, Wall Street executives with direct knowledge of his thinking say. That would include buy backs, selling short-term debt, possible elimination of long-dated bonds like the 20 year etc. It's a short-term solution to keep yields from soaring further, strangling growth as the midterms approach, they say, and doesn't address the real problem: Debt now at the $40 trillion level, and competition for capital from AI buildout. Longer term, don't look for austerity coming out of the Trump White House in its remaining years, they say. The plan remains top possibly "grow" out of the debt level through increased tax revs because the cure for such high debt levels would be recession inducing taxes or austerity. Story developing
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These guys really are pulling out all the stops.
Treasury cannot print cash the way the Fed can. HOWEVER, draining the TGA would have an equivalent impact by boosting bank reserve assets/deposit liabilities. It unbottles cash that was previously created but locked away in the TGA.
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BESSENT COULD UNLEASH $1 TRILLION ON BOND MARKET The US Treasury could tap its nearly $1 trillion cash account to fund expanded bond buybacks, potentially giving it major firepower to push long-term yields lower. Treasury recently doubled minimum buybacks of longer-dated securities to $4 billion, with Bessent signaling even larger purchases are possible. Using existing Treasury cash could strengthen the program’s market impact while reducing the need for Federal Reserve involvement.
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Bessent is definitely trying to suppress yields, but it's a bit silly to cry financial repression when real yields are at multi-decade highs.
The next thing the bond market may freak out about (fueled by Fed independence vigilantes) is a Treasury-Fed accord. I touch on this on a piece on Bessent’s buyback last week @TheTerminal There is a third Fed mandate (“moderate interest rates”), and it is open to interpretation what that means. One of those interpretation is bringing down treasury risk premium. Here is Jeffrey Lacker’s testimony to the House.
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Markets Weekly August 22, 2026 Treasury Twist Big Tool kit
Bonds are the ultimate AI trade.
If AI isn’t a bubble, you’ll lose your job. If AI is a bubble, you’ll lose your savings. Most likely, AI is currently in a financial bubble but technologically still on an exponential improvement curve, so you’ll first lose your savings and then lose your job. Good luck.
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Bessent describes his buybacks as a "Treasury Twist" suggesting that it is changing the duration of Treasuries outstanding. The prior Admin swore up and down the buyback program would not be a tool to adjust duration, but many of us knew better :)
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It's not accurate to think of financial assets as competing for a pool of "savings." Savings is a real economy concept denoting goods/services produced and not consumed. Financial assets require financing, and that can be created out of thin air by commercial banks or the Fed.
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When do we start talking about the Fed's third mandate: "moderate long-term interest rates?" Does that fall under monetary policy independence or is it like swap lines and banking regulations where the White House gets a say.
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Gold breaking through its 200dma👀 Remember, the President said it's the Golden Age and he has a history of making good market calls.