Waller went from pleading "give disinflation a chance" just a few weeks ago to telegraphing "additional hikes" on account of higher energy prices, bigger AI buildout, and more tariffs.

US Equity Supply Is Back: Net Issuance Turns Positive After 20 Years The 20-year shrinkage of US public equity supply is over. Net issuance: +$45bn in Q1, +$152bn in Q2, the largest quarter ever. Anthropic ($100bn), SB Energy ($50bn) and Inspire Brands ($20bn) are still to come. Supply will be a headwind for the S&P 500, or at the very least a tap on the brakes.

Deep dive into how Scott Bessent runs Treasury. In January, he confronted the agency’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, yelling at him in front of aides and unleashing profanities. Bessent shouted so loudly that staff working nearby could hear him, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, @schwartzbWSJ @jdawsey1 @PhilipWegmann @GZuckerman report. People who have worked with Bessent said he often appears calm but can excoriate staff when he is frustrated. Some aides said they ask colleagues about the secretary’s mood before coming into contact with him, and trade advice on how to avoid him when he is angry. Several officials described feeling relieved when Bessent was away from the office. But Trump has only pulled Bessent closer, empowering him to solve stubborn problems in the economy. Bessent’s defenders argue his intense approach to the job is an asset.

The thumbrule that says that the 10-year treasury yield should be roughly equal to nGDP growth is based on a cherry-picked historical anomaly. It only held true during a period in the mid-to-late 1990s, in the aftermath of the Volcker monetary tightness (when the 10-yr rate was actually higher than nGDP growth). During the expansions of the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 2000s, and 2010s, the 10-year was typically 2%-3% points below nGDP growth. Today, that would suggest a 4%-5% yield. The claim that rates should be 6%-7% today b/c that's where nGDP growth is are even more dubious when considering current wage growth. For most of post-war history, 10-yr rates were 2%-3% below aggregate wage (COE) growth. That includes the boom of the late 1990s, which saw very strong growth. The numbers on that front may improve from here, but so far, they've been quite weak, which would suggest a 10-yr yield well below current levels.