Register and share your invite link to earn from video plays and referrals.

Justin Mateen
@justinmateen
Founder of JAM Fund | Co-founder of Tinder | Seed investor in: Curative, Deel, Kalshi, Slash, Speak, Whop… and many others
Joined January 2013
192 Following    10.4K Followers
The market is being stupid on META and AMZN again. Buy both, and sleep well. Read this for confirmation… META should not be down 8% after hours. They grew revenue 28% at enormous scale. The headline EPS miss included $3.6B of legal and severance charges. On a normalized basis, EPS was approximately $7.35, well above consensus. The market keeps treating higher capex as a negative. It has this completely backwards. AI demand is supply constrained, so productive capex is future revenue capacity. META will increase earnings drastically and use it internally, or lease excess supply and make a large arbitrage either short term or long term. In all cases, it’s a massive win. In Amazon’s case it is spending today to unlock years of high margin (40%+) AWS revenue tomorrow. Capex ROI is likely around 30%. AMZN has a clean setup going into earnings tomorrow: AWS grew 28% last quarter, its fastest growth in 15 quarters. Amazon has a custom chip business (to bypass NVDA and increase margins) that passed $20B ARR and is growing triple digits. AWS generated nearly 60% of Amazon’s operating income last quarter. This percentage will continue to increase, even if we get an increase in prime membership pricing which happens every 4 years, and has not happened although we are in year 4 and due for an increase if you believe in patterns. Perhaps tomorrow? There are many data points that support cloud AI demand is accelerating. My bet is AWS reaccelerates sharply to 40%+ the second half of 26 as new capacity comes online. 45–50% in Q4 is very possible if the capacity ramp hits, which means earnings estimates are far too low. AMZN average EPS for 2027 is $10.09, but I would not be surprised if they do $14+ EPS. AWS is worth more than the current market cap of AMZN. Full disclosure I have meaningful positions in both companies and believe both META and AMZN will at least double to 1,000+ and $450+ respectively by 2028.
Show more