Justin Mateen(@justinmateen):There’s a lot of talk about OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX being worth more than the combined IPO day value of all 3,365 U.S. tech IPOs from 1980-2025. But they can have very different destinies. OpenAI and Anthropic can both become $5-10 trillion companies near term and still ultimately become zeros if they don’t create a real moat. SpaceX has spent decades building one. Incremental model improvements alone will not be enough for the frontier labs.

Justin Mateen

@justinmateen

Founder of JAM Fund | Co-founder of Tinder | Seed investor in: Curative, Deel, Kalshi, Slash, Speak, Whop… and many others

Joined January 2013

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Justin Mateen@justinmateen

2026.09.23 23:55

There’s a lot of talk about OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX being worth more than the combined IPO day value of all 3,365 U.S. tech IPOs from 1980-2025. But they can have very different destinies. OpenAI and Anthropic can both become $5-10 trillion companies near term and still ultimately become zeros if they don’t create a real moat. SpaceX has spent decades building one. Incremental model improvements alone will not be enough for the frontier labs.