Julio Moreno
@jjcmoreno
Head of Research @CryptoQuant_com | Data-driven analysis of Bitcoin and digital assets.
1.3K Following 23.3K Followers
"Uptober" has dissapointed as:
- Spot demand continued to contract, while US investors remained mostly on the sidelines.
- Trader's took profits, while there's still gains to be realized.
- Overall conditions became less bullish (Bull Score Index down from 90 to 60).
Macro events to watch: Fed decision, US elections.
Key levels for Bitcoin: the 365-day moving average at $77,585, the trader realized price at $74,041 and the 200-day moving average at $73,028.
Our latest report in the post 👇
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Some of the largest Bitcoin mining companies have seen their Bitcoin production cut by as much as 56% as they pivot to AI.
Yet, Bitcoin hashrate is recovering and is only down by 8% from its all-time high.
Our latest report: Miners Pivot, Hashrate Holds
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Take a look at our latest podcast.
We discussed Bitcoin market cycles with @cryptovizart, one of the OG On-chain analysts.
A lot of insights in this one.
Every Bitcoin cycle has taken longer to recover to its all-time high than it took to fall into the bear market.
We're only ~100 days into this recovery. @cryptovizart walks through what the historical ratio implies.
Watch now ⤵️
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This is Tesla's Roadster fully loaded version.
The signs of a price correction are always there.
After this recent rally, Bitcoin unrealized profit margins (33%) reached the highest level since December 2024, and profit taking, 25.7K, BTC spiked to the largest so far in 2026.
These are typical signals of a rally losing momentum and risks of a correction.
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Is this one of those accounts that just steals content and analysis?
You could at least tag me in your post.
BITCOIN UNREALIZED PROFIT MARGINS JUST HIT THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE DECEMBER 2024.
33% across the market.
And profit taking spiked to 25,700 BTC.
The largest single selling event of 2026.
This is the textbook signal of a rally losing momentum.
Too much profit.
Too many sellers.
Too little fresh demand to absorb it all.
December 2024 was the last time margins hit this level.
What followed was a multi-month correction.
The rally has been extraordinary.
But the signals are now pointing to one inevitable outcome.
A reset before the next leg higher.
Corrections inside bull markets are not the end.
They are the reload.
Proceed with caution into the weekend.
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Another sign of potential volatility.
The number of Altcoin exchange deposits climbed yesterday to the highest since October 2025.
After this recent rally, Bitcoin unrealized profit margins (33%) reached the highest level since December 2024, and profit taking, 25.7K, BTC spiked to the largest so far in 2026.
These are typical signals of a rally losing momentum and risks of a correction.
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Bitget exchange announced "unauthorized transfers" from its hot wallets for about $351M.
You can see the spike in outflows of USDC, ETH, USDT and others.
According to the exchange, "The incident falls within the coverage of Bitget’s User Protection Fund".
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Fundamentally, Bitcoin > $80K right now is very different from Bitcoin > $80K back in May.
Bull Score Index (BSI) is at 80 right now (extra bullish, green), whereas it was at 50 (neutral, gray) back in May.
Bull Score Index:
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The last signal for a Bitcoin bull market confirmation.
Price > 365-day moving average.
Does this mean they will return the BTC hacked from Liquid network?
"Sending most back to bc1qdll...wxxr, is that ok"
Market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin.
Basically all metrics are pointing to the initial phase of a new bull market.
Two things to keep in mind:
- Bitcoin's price still has to cross above its 365-day MA ($83K today) for the bull market to be "officially" confirmed.
- A price correction is possible given high unrealized gains after the recent price rally, and potential selling pressure from a spike of exchange inflows.
All in all, the data is very constructive.
Full analysis in our report:
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Bitcoin's final boss: the 365-day moving average, standing at $83K right now.
Bitcoin apparent spot demand entered into expansion territory a few days ago for just the second time in 2026.
Historically, the median return is 23% in the next 60 days after this happens during a bear market.
Full details in our report published yesterday:
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Holder sweep transactions spiked amid the Coldcard hack and the days after.
On July 31, 1.2K BTC were swept by holders, up from just 65 BTC the day before the hack.
Bitcoin transferred by swept transactions remained elevated until August 7, with a total of 2,575 BTC moved in this period.
A swept transaction is defined here as:
- Total address' BTC holdings are transferred in the transaction.
- The total holdings are transferred to 1 new address.
- Transfers < 1 BTC in this case.
The attackers' addresses are excluded in this analysis.
This chart is live in our Coldcard hack dashboard here:
Our research report:
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No RHR this week.
The end of an era?
Short activity spike on Bitcoin futures markets, the equivalent to +22K Bitcoin in just a few hours.
Short behavior is dominating.
The Trader's On-chain Realized Price has continued to be a resistance for Bitcoin, today at $65.6K
Key level to watch.
Live chart:
