⛽ Can tight octane markets keep gasoline prices supported through Q4? Seasonal demand may be slowing, but tight octane supplies, geopolitical disruptions and historically low inventories are keeping #gasoline# markets stronger than usual. In Europe, low Rhine water levels and weak naphtha cracking margins continue to constrain aromatics supplies. Meanwhile, China's MTBE exports remain under pressure from tight #methanol# and butane availability. Despite expectations of softer gasoline fundamentals heading into winter, Kpler analysts Ines Goncalves and Ciaran Tyler highlight why octane tightness could keep prices above typical seasonal levels and create further risks into 2027. Discover what's driving the outlook:

Oil Markets: Supply Shifts & Rising Tensions From record-breaking production in Latin America to hurricane disruptions in the US Gulf, oil markets are facing fresh supply shifts. In today's market update, Michelle Brouhard and Matt Smith discuss rising output in Argentina, Brazil and Guyana, hurricane-related production shutdowns, and growing uncertainty around US-Iran tensions. 🎥 Watch the latest update for insights into the forces shaping global #oil# markets:

🌾 Your markets move fast. Your insights should too. From shifting grain export windows to swings in iron ore demand and overnight freight moves, staying ahead means understanding the flows behind the headlines. With Kpler's Ags & Dry Weekly Newsletter, choose the markets that matter to you and get tailored analysis, trade flow insights and expert data delivered to your inbox each week. Covering iron ore & steel, coal, grains & oilseeds, minor bulks and dry bulk freight. Choose your markets and subscribe:

WTI Midland stays competitive as Atlantic freight surges Freight has surged across the Atlantic Basin, with TD25 now close to WS1000. Even so, WTI Midland still screens competitively into Europe. A wider Brent-WTI spread is helping offset the freight hit, while tight European light sweet supply continues to support demand for US barrels. The bigger question is how long that can hold if freight stays this elevated and more Atlantic Basin supply starts competing for the same refinery demand. Real-time tools to enable faster, better decisions:

Middle East oil flows are recovering, but the market isn’t back to normal yet. Crude production and exports across Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are moving closer to pre-conflict levels, while refined product loadings are also beginning to pick up. But with flows still lagging and gasoil around $178/bbl, tightness remains. 🎥 Matt Stanley and Matt Smith break down the latest Kpler data:

Saudi Red Sea exports rebound Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea crude export system is demonstrating renewed resilience after disruption to the East West Pipeline. Confirmed loadings from Yanbu and Muajjiz reached around 45 million barrels between 17 September and 4 October. Satellite imagery captured on 4 October showed two tankers berthed at Yanbu and three occupying all available berths at Muajjiz. Operations have continued despite heightened regional security risks, while activity at Egypt’s Sidi Kerir signals a broader return of alternative routes for Asian buyers. The recovery strengthens Saudi Arabia’s ability to sustain crude flows while reducing reliance on more exposed maritime chokepoints. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler# Insight:

🌍 Next up in the Latam Series. Venezuela's evolving sanctions landscape, deceptive shipping tactics, and the ports moving cargo across the region all carry real compliance and commercial risk, often hidden until it's too late. Join Kpler experts Dimitris Ampatzidis and Robert Taylor-Branco as they break down the latest developments across maritime risk, including sanctions, dark activity, and port intelligence across the region. Reserve your spot here:

Join us in London for the Kpler Gas & Power Market Briefing, bringing together senior decision-makers for a focused, data-driven look at what's ahead for Winter 2026-27 and beyond. Our experts will explore: ▪️ The Winter 2026-27 #LNG# and European natural gas outlook ▪️ The European #power# market heading into winter Speakers: Laura Page, Arturo Regalado and Liam Coman Start your day with the latest insights, direct access to Kpler experts, and the opportunity to connect with peers over breakfast. 📍 The Conduit, 6 Langley St, London WC2H 9JA 📅 October 13, 2026 from 8:00am–10:30am 🔗 Register here:

Brent is swinging around the $100 mark as geopolitical risk continues to drive volatility. In today’s market update, @Amena__Bakr, Head of Middle East Energy & OPEC+, and Matt Stanley, Head of Market Engagement, EMEA & APAC, discuss stalled diplomacy, ongoing threats to regional infrastructure and vessels, volatile Middle East flows, and why diesel could become a major focus as we enter Q4. Watch the latest market snapshot for what’s moving oil markets:

Shanghai’s waiting room is filling up Container ships bound for Shanghai and Ningbo are waiting longer and increasingly further out at sea. Using Kpler AIS data, we mapped every container-ship anchor stop across July and August and compared the picture with the same period in 2024. The shift is striking: stops lasting more than three days jumped from just 22 to 979. The queues are spreading beyond traditional anchorages, longer waits are becoming more common, and the vessels caught in them are getting bigger. Explore the full interactive story:

Gulf crude exports recover Seven months after the Strait of Hormuz closed, Middle East Gulf crude exports excluding Iran have returned to pre-war levels, reaching at least 16.5 mbd in September. The recovery has reshaped regional #oil# logistics. Around 40% of crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE make greater use of pipeline routes. Of the #crude# that crossed Hormuz in August, more than 70% changed tankers offshore. The volumes have recovered, but through a fundamentally different export system. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler# Insight:

With markets moving fast, Matt Stanley, Head of Market Engagement, EMEA & APAC, is joined by Amena Bakr, Head of Middle East Energy & OPEC+, Matt Smith, Director of Commodity Research, and Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk, for a special discussion on what’s happening across Middle East #energy# markets. Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering and Saudi exports from Yanbu are picking up but conditions remain far from normal. The team breaks down the latest Kpler data, the risks that remain and what the emerging “new normal” could mean for oil markets. Watch the market snapshot:

What moves oil from here? With Brent hovering around $100 and Iran headlines shifting by the hour, Matt Stanley, Head of Market Engagement, EMEA & APAC, and Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk, unpack what's driving the uncertainty — and what the market needs to see next. Watch the latest market snapshot:

Scarce barrels eclipse record quotas China's independent refiners have more crude import quotas than ever, but fewer affordable barrels to fill them. Total 2026 allocations have reached a record 219.5 mt, while Iranian and Russian supplies remain tight and replacement barrels command steep premiums. Shandong teapot run rates have already slipped to 54.07% and could fall further in October. If runs decline towards 45%, state-owned refiners may need roughly 350 kbd of additional throughput to offset lost production, shifting crude demand towards compliant barrels and supporting the Dubai market. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler# Insight: 

🌎 Our Latam Series continues. Iron ore, steel, and copper markets are shifting, dry bulk freight rates for Latam exporters are already running high, and a new US harvest is about to test Argentina and Brazil's hold on global grain markets. Join Kpler experts Alexis Ellender and Ishan Bhanu as they break down the latest developments across ags and metals, including freight rates, export flows, and the key risks shaping the region. 📅 Wednesday, September 30 ⏰ 10:00 COT | 11:00 EDT | 12:00 BRT | 16:00 BST Reserve your spot:

A possible framework is not yet a breakthrough. With oil prices reacting quickly to the latest US–Iran headlines, attention is once again turning to the Strait of Hormuz. But without clarity on implementation or the sequencing of concessions, how close are the two sides to meaningful progress? @Amena__Bakr, Head of Middle East Energy & OPEC+, and Matt Stanley, Head of Market Engagement, EMEA & APAC at Kpler, unpack the market reaction, the obstacles facing negotiators and the continued uncertainty surrounding regional oil flows. Watch the latest Kpler market update:

📈 Oil markets are back on edge. With Brent above $105 a barrel, geopolitical risk is once again driving the conversation. How much further could the risk premium climb? @Amena__Bakr, Head of Middle East Energy & Opec+, and Matt Stanley, Head of Market Engagement, EMEA & APAC at Kpler, unpack the latest developments, from US–Iran diplomacy to the East-West Pipeline and continued risks across the Strait of Hormuz. Watch the latest Kpler market update:

Coal markets head into a pivotal winter With winter approaching, the global coal market is facing a rapidly changing supply and demand picture. From shifting #fuel# economics and tighter Chinese production to changing Russian export routes, several pressures are reshaping where coal is moving and who is buying it. Our latest Coal Monthly snapshot explores the key markets and trade flows to watch in the months ahead. Heading to Coaltrans Asia, 27th–30th September? Connect with the Kpler team to discuss the latest market developments and what our data is showing. Read the snapshot:

US diesel curbs risk global shock Restricting US #diesel# exports could lower prices temporarily across parts of the domestic market, but the effects would extend well beyond American shores. Europe and Latin America would lose a major source of supply, intensifying competition for barrels from alternatives such as India and pushing international prices higher. Within the US, depleted East Coast inventories would still require logistical support, including continued Jones Act flexibility. A full ban could also weaken refinery margins and prompt run cuts. Any domestic price relief may therefore prove temporary, with prices potentially rising again once the US returns to the global market. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler# Insight:

Mark your calendars: Kpler Pulse Latam Series is back Starting 24 September, we're bringing together Kpler experts for five webinars exploring the forces shaping Latin America's commodity and maritime markets. 📍 24 Sep: Crude & Refined Products 📍 30 Sep: Dry Bulk 📍 7 Oct: Maritime 📍 15 Oct: Financial Flows 📍 21 Oct: Arbitrage First up: "Latam under pressure: Crude, fuel, and freight in a shifting world." Join us as we unpack how changing crude flows, fuel markets and freight dynamics are reshaping the region. 🕙 10:00 COT | 11:00 EDT | 12:00 BRT | 16:00 BST 👉 Reserve your spot: