$TSM’s earnings look great but GM is lower than buy-side expectations.
But like I said in the interview with 168X, I have great respect for this company as they care about the ecosystem. If they want, they can raise the prices easily to get a higher margin, but they chose not to.
Compared to the greedy Samsung, who is always targeting 99.99% GM 😂. I don’t think this is sustainable.
$TSM | TSMC Q2’26 Detailed Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $40.2B; +33.7% YoY
🔹 Net Profit: $22.36B (Est. $19.74B) 🟢; +77.4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 67.7% (Est. 67.1%) 🟢
🔸 CapEx raised to $60B-$64B from $52B-$56B.
Q3’26 Guide:
🔹 Rev: $44.6B-$45.8B (Est. $43.11B) 🟢; +37% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 65%-67% (Est. 65.9%) 🟡
🔹 Operating Margin: 56%-58% (Est. 57.7%) 🟡
🔹 FX assumption: US$1 = NT$32.0
🔸 CapEx over the next 3 years will be “even more significantly higher” than during the prior 3 years.
Revenue by Platform:
🔹 HPC: 66%; +20% QoQ
🔹 Smartphone: 22%; -4% QoQ
🔹 IoT: 5%; +4% QoQ
🔹 Automotive: 4%; +15% QoQ
🔹 DCE: 1%; +5% QoQ
🔹 Others: 2%; +5% QoQ
Technology Mix (Wafer Revenue):
🔹 2nm: 3%
🔹 3nm: 30%
🔹 5nm: 33%
🔹 7nm: 11%
🔹 7nm and below: 77%
Other Metrics:
🔹 EPS: $4.31 per ADR (Est. $3.83) 🟢
🔹 Operating Margin: 60.3% (Est. 58.6%) 🟢
🔹 Net Profit Margin: 55.6%
🔹 Wafer Shipments: +16.6% YoY; +3.9% QoQ
🔹 North America: 78% of revenue
🔹 ROE: 45.9%
🔹 OpEx: 7.8% of revenue
🔹 Inventory Days: 87; +7 days QoQ
🔹 VIS Share Gain: $2.00B
2026 Outlook:
🔸 N2 ramp expected to dilute gross margin by 3-4 pts in 2H26.
🔸 Overseas fabs expected to dilute gross margin by 2-3 pts initially and 3-4 pts in later stages.
🔸 Long-term revenue CAGR remains around 25%, while AI accelerator revenue CAGR remains in the high-50s%.
US Expansion:
🔸 TSMC announced an additional $100B investment in Arizona. The additional commitment lifts TSMC’s total US investment plan to $265B.
🔸 The eventual US footprint could reach 10 fabs and 2 advanced-packaging facilities.
🔸 The four new facilities are expected to focus on 2nm logic, although the final mix could shift to three logic fabs and one packaging plant.
🔸 Construction timing remains undisclosed and will depend on market conditions.