@Chunweichan @labubu_trader It is, but not sufficient. Bond volatility will drive stock volatility, and VIX will hit 18-20 as tech may slide during bond sell-offs.
Stocks like META and CPU names holding the index may see momentum unwind soon. The rest of the year is still gonna be bumpy.
Show more
leap calls have better capital efficiency to me, it gives me a similar level of delta exposure but reserves much less capital.
So if the market continues the rally, I can enjoy the ride along although less profits.
If the market has a sharp selloff then recovery, I’d have cash to buy the dip but with limited loss in the middle. Another important benefit is convexity: Delta shrinks as the stock falls and rebuilds as it rebounds.
Only one caveat is don’t buy leaps after the big selloff as the IV would be super high. And the IV would crush along the way when the stock price recovers.
Show more
@labubu_trader Why leaps over spot?
wouldnt it be better to add leaps on broader dips?
ORACLE SEEKS PROTECTION FROM DATA CENTER DELAYS
$ORCL has issued a force majeure notice tied to Project Jupiter, the 2.45GW New Mexico data center that is part of the Stargate AI buildout, Bloomberg reports.
Oracle is not trying to exit the project, but is seeking to delay payments if the site misses its planned 2028 opening.
The project has faced permitting setbacks, including a six-month delay to a key gas pipeline. Its $18B construction debt is already trading below 90 cents on the dollar.
Oracle says the project remains on schedule.
Show more
LMAO, seems like ORCL saved the long-end bond rate.
Slower data center development means less supply of AI bonds, thus less competition on the long-end Treasury. If the market trades the midterm election, seems like what happened just now is how things would move.
Show more
BREAKING: Oracle stock, $ORCL, falls -5% after declaring "force majeure" on a massive data center being built in New Mexico.
Oracle has reportedly made the move in order to shield itself from rapidly rising expenses on the project.
Show more
$META unveiled Muse Charm, a palm-sized 5G device built specifically for talking to its Muse AI agent.
They plan to ship the device in December, in time for the holidays.
muse announcements so far
- free for users, but may eventually take a cut of transactions
- adding computer use
- muse email addresses coming soon
- walmart, best buy, gap, sephora, instacart, and more integrating with muse
- integrations with box, github, granola, notion
- 1500+ applications for connector platform (lovable, eleven labs, and more)
Show more
Another thing is I guess the market underestimates the probability of Oct hike
And also midterm volatility heading into Oct, I don’t think it would affect AI development too much if Dems party took over the senators, but I’m concerned that the market would trade it in a negative way.
Show more
🚨 BREAKING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BE INSANE FOR THE MARKETS:
WEDNESDAY:
4:00 PM → XI JINPING ARRIVES IN THE U.S.
4:30 PM → U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC MEETING
THURSDAY:
9:00 AM → TRUMP-XI MEETING AT THE WHITE HOUSE
10:00 AM → FORMAL ECONOMIC SUMMIT
7:00 PM → STATE DINNER WITH AMERICAN TECH CEOS
FRIDAY:
10:30 AM → U.S.-CHINA DOCUMENT SIGNING
1:00 PM → CHINESE DELEGATION DEPARTS THE U.S.
GET READY FOR THE MOST VOLATILE WEEK OF 2026!!
Show more
Not saying $FSLY can't continue to rally in this environment, but I ran the math and impact to #
s# doesn't seem big at all.
Agent browsing is heavy on requests and light on bytes. As FSLY's CEO put it this week, “agents aren’t watching videos yet.”
Under our usage/pricing assumptions, each Muse daily user generates only ~1.5–5 cents in annual revenue before splitting traffic with Cloudflare.
At 250M daily users, that’s ~$4–13M as sole carrier, or ~$2–6.5M with a 50/50 split.
Stack every bullish assumption at 250M daily users and we get ~$35–60M, or 4–7% of FY27E revenue and roughly a 10% uplift to operating income.
Reminder: FSLY fell 38% on May 7 after the last OpenClaw/agent run-up, when Network Services only grew a disappointing 11%. I know this different, jus pointing it out.
Precedent: in 2021 Piper sized all of Apple’s iCloud Private Relay at $40–74M/yr, split across three CDNs. It never showed up as a visible step-change in FSLY's numbers.
No position here, just know what you're getting into
(Disclosure: I've been blown up on FSLY before)
Show more
The $META Muse Consumer Agentic winners vs. losers spread continues to grow wider, another 6% today and now 35% in a couple weeks
Another thing is I guess the market underestimates the probability of Oct hike
And also midterm volatility heading into Oct, I don’t think it would affect AI development too much if Dems party took over the senators, but I’m concerned that the market would trade it in a negative way.
Show more
10Y-2Y massive bear flattening reversal gravestone Doji yesterday with a higher close today. If we turn back into a bull steepener risk assets will explode
This is one of the most interesting AI trades I’ve seen yet.
Goldman Sachs has a “Consumer Inertia” basket.
Basically: companies that benefit because customers keep paying, renewing, booking, or buying out of habit.
Today it got crushed.
Planet Fitness: -9.5% $PLNT
LPL Financial: -7.5% $LPLA
New York Times: -7.2% $NYT
Schwab: -6.1% $SCHW
Allstate: -5.5% $ALL
Why?
Investors are starting to ask what happens when personal AI agents begin shopping around for us.
Imagine an AI that automatically:
- Finds cheaper insurance
- Moves your cash to a better account
- Cancels subscriptions you barely use
- Compares travel prices instantly
- Shops for better financial products
A huge amount of corporate profit depends on friction, complexity, and people simply not bothering to switch.
AI could attack all three.
We’ve spent years asking which jobs AI will replace.
Maybe the bigger question is:
Which business models only work because consumers are too busy to look for a better deal?
Show more
Well said. Technology opens the future, but only products deliver it.
Besides, OAI already feels the huge pressure from muse, and will probably release their personal assistant product in Oct.
Everyone’s focused on AI capex, but the humanoid robotics capex cycle hasn’t even begun. Scaling humanoid intelligence & eventually manufacturing these robots at scale will unleash an entirely new wave of capital spending ‘measured in the hundreds of billions.’
Show more
Hmm… 🤔 wonder if this is true?
A sample size of 3 isn't that significant. You guys will need at least 12 more partnerships before I believe this is a statistically relevant result.
Here are a few companies you could partner with next. If their stocks pop too, I'll accept that Meta Muse partnerships have a statistically positive correlation with the partner's share price:
- Etsy $ETSY
- Instacart $CART
- Wayfair $W
- Carvana $CVNA
- Affirm $AFRM
- Block $XYZ
- Airbnb $ABNB
- Lyft $LYFT
- Target $TGT
- DoorDash $DASH
- eBay $EBAY
- Booking $BKNG
Show more
I closed all of my mstr position bought around FOMC today.
If BTC tests the May high and hold, then will buy it back.
If it flies higher, I won’t chase at all.
Learned something new called "Adam & Eve"
looks like $ARM and $INTC was in this pattern before break out.
"Adam & Eve" 是我很喜欢的一个反转技术形态。
1. Adam:先出现一个快速的 V 型底,往往是恐慌下杀后迅速反弹。
2. 股价反弹,但还没有真正反转成功。
3. Eve:第二次下跌时速度更慢,形成一个圆弧底,波动通常比第一次收敛。
4. 最后突破两个底之间的 neckline,形态确认。
第一次代表市场砸不动了,第二次代表卖压慢慢耗尽。 $INTC
Show more