US manufacturing is booming, expanding at the fastest pace since 2022 and beating expectations in many metrics for the month of July. Omar Sharif of Inflation Insights points out that the ISM production index rose by the most for any July since 1951.
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Investors are pricing out the chance of a recession. Respondents to the latest BofA fund manager survey see a 54% of "no landing" for the economy, a record, w/only 2% seeing a hard landing. Sentiment is the most bullish since February; 83% see no Fed rate hikes before midterms
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If the US jobless rate falls to 4.2% or below, it'll be in line or below the expected 4.2% CPI next week. That would be just 7th time since 1960 with inflation running close to or above the jobless rate: BofA's Michael Hartnett. Previous times this happened: '66, '73, '90, '00, '08, '21.
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Just five companies - Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom and Apple - have accounted for half of the S&P 500's growth since April.
"This is one of the best earnings seasons in 20 years...All 11 top-level sectors are expected to show YoY earnings growth for the first time in 4 years:" Deutsche Bank research
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