Btw I just want to give a huge shoutout to the @DefiLlama team for being so responsive and flexible in making this integration work. The llamas are some the hardest working and most honest builders in this space. Our industry is blessed to have them 💙

The first 10 days of our DefiLlama partnership served mostly as a market survey experiment. A sliver of its full potential, if you will. And despite the conservative launch, @Trueo_ is seeing material growth. Heading into the New Year, we’re going to ramp up this integration. More markets. More categories. More liquidity. We’re just getting started. So much more to come 🫡

Unironically, Vitalik’s latest blog post was all about Ethereum’s future as a new crypto class, and he’s unapologetically obsessed with delivering that vision. This is what I mean when I say Ethereum is crypto. It’s literally the only place this mindset exists.

There are currently hundreds of unique markets on @Trueo_ spanning a wide array of categories. Everything from local real-estate sales to the retail price of DDR-RAM to CT gossip to geo-politics is covered by Trueo. The breadth of coverage we offer is rivalled only by Kalshi and Polymarket. But while they rely on large full-time editorial teams, we source our markets through the curiosity of the crowd. As for liquidity, that’ll be our highest priority when we launch on Ethereum. I honestly think liquidity is the only thing standing between us and competing head on with the two behemoths. Fortunately for us, prediction market liquidity has become commoditized and the modelling tools for real-world events are improving at breakneck speed with AI. Those liquidity moats won’t last for long.

Short post on @Trueo_’s mechanics: Anyone can permissionlessly create a market through the App. Topics can include virtually anything that’s publicly verifiable! (within ethical boundaries ofc). A market’s life cycle starts from a proposal. Once submitted, it enters a 3 day funding phase where it needs to hit a liquidity threshold in order to graduate. Markets that graduate become tradable like any traditional prediction market. The ones that fail to graduate expire without becoming tradable, and funders can withdraw their deposits. Funding a market fulfills several functions in a single step: - clearing the initial odds - seeding minimum liquidity - quality filtering Every market is an event contract that resolves based its resolution rules. Those rules are immutable. They are committed onchain as plain text strings inside the proposal transaction. Once a contract is live, it cannot be altered, clarified, or changed. This gives traders peace of mind that the goal posts will not be moved mid-trading, regardless of who the original creator was. All markets are resolved through the protocol’s enshrined oracle. The oracle serves as the neutral arbiter in case of a dispute. The details of this process require its own post, but the summary is that the oracle combines elements of AI automation, economic security (TRUE holders), and a human jury pool. The idea is that most prediction markets restrict market creation to an editorial team, or gate keep it behind significant capital requirements. One of the main reasons for this gatekeeping is because those prediction markets don’t have an oracle flexible enough to resolve markets on just any topic created by just anyone. This is where Trueo shines! Its oracle is designed to surface evidence from any and all legitimate data sources. It does this through an open and fair resolution process that doesn’t suffer from the rigidity of common oracle systems! If you haven’t tried the App yet, now’s a good time. Go ahead and create a market, it only takes a minute and it costs almost nothing! Oh, and you can earn creator fees if the market graduates. If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comments 🫶

Btw this shouldn’t be mistaken for me hating on Uniswap. I’m critical of them because I care and because @Trueo_ is integrated with Uniswap. While most projects were doing Aerodrome bribes, we launched the TRUE/ETH pool and its rewards on UniV2. We used UI abstractions to turn UniV3 into a PM orderbook. Later we developed a custom UniV4 hook and limit order system. We have integrated with every version of uniswap except for V1. And now we’re developing an accounting system on top of our Uniswap hook which lets you use liquidity to bid across multiple pools instead of depositing to each pool individually. I have skin in the game here. So when I see Uniswap put resources into building the 100th launchpad but not even build a factory limit order solution, I’m obviously gonna be annoyed.

I think Uniswap’s biggest shortcoming ever was the failure to deliver native limit orders for their AMM. Don’t bother hitting me up about the technicals, we tried very hard to build a limit order system right into our custom hook natively, but we couldn’t dedicate endless amounts of time solve something that should have been part of the core protocol. So in the end we had to deploy a peripheral contract to offer this rudentary trading feature. UniLabs has the resources to solve this, they just never put enough effort into it. Oh and btw, Uniswap didn’t even approve us for their audit grant program for the hook or the limit order contracts.

User created prediction markets are the best of both worlds because they let users bet on the very things they care about. Creating markets is also one of the only ways to use crypto without capital requirements. Ask a question. Earn fees.

I think this industry needs to do everything it can to preserve open source. Open source was the primary reason the industry was able to grow so rapidly in its first decade. New builders avoid building new stuff onchain and just use offchain infra for everything but final settlement because it’s so much easier and faster. Onchain product development is much slower. In the age of vibe-coding, that is viewed as a cardinal sin. Rome was vibe-coded in day, your app has no excuse. Every new feature or product requires triple the work when it’s onchain (code audits, regression testing, data tracking + rendering are all way more complicated when building fully onchain vs offchain). UX of onchain is unavoidably a harder problem to solve, especially for anything user facing. Open source was the great equalizer in all this because it allowed projects to pick up pieces of things that work and iterate on them, without having to build from scratch again. With AI, open source can be turbocharged. But we need orgs to continue shipping open source code. Hyperliquid was only possible because all its foundational components were built from open source code. 90% of DEXs were only possible because Uniswap v2 was open source. Polymarket, was able to start off as a small experiment because Gnosis’s conditional token framework was open source. If we strip open source away from the onchain economy, we limit its potential for explosive growth. Because building onchain is objectively, harder, slower, and at times riskier. Open source is literally a remedy for all three of those things.

Don’t let thirsty analysts and KOLs fool you. Tokenized MLM schemes (memecoins) are fading into irrelevance. Below, we have a revenue chart of just one of the dozen sniperbot/trading apps that were popular during 2024-25. It did the fomo’s ATH revenue numbers with all the cargo-cult marketing, IN ONE OF ITS LOWEST ACTIVITY WEEKS during that 16 month window. On average, this now benign app, did anywhere from 3-20x that amount week over week until TRUMP’s great extraction event. AND the “app” was competing with a dozen others that were doing similar numbers that whole time. Today, there are two trading apps, both fighting tooth and nail over the remaining scraps of victims. Zoom out. Look at the bigger picture. The only consumer segment of crypto that is actually growing is prediction markets. Don’t fall for the fomo (pun intended). Memecoins are ded.

Binary settlement contracts can and will be disrupted because polymarket and kalshi are servicing only one side of a two-sided marketplace. They both service the trading aspect of event contracts. The others side of that coin is the market creator. Poly and kalshi ask the questions, and all traders can do is answer them. Disruption comes from breaking that pattern and aggregating market ideas from the crowd. Going from a single full-time team of curators to a permissionless system that harnesses ideas from the internet as they spawn, is the breakthrough. “Crowdsourcing” doesn’t have to be a system of chaos with no structure and hundreds of duplicate markets. A proper permissionless system enables curators, domain specific experts, users with online reach, regulars on the prediction platform, and ppl who just come up with unique ideas, all the same. Poly and Kalshi are ignoring half the game, which means there’s a big opportunity up for grabs.

Trueo’s biggest competitive edge is that we have the most mature permissionless prediction market product out there. No cheap ‘beta’ tags. No gimmicks. Create event contracts for any idea or question, in seconds. - Yield bearing markets - Onchain orderbook - Well tuned market generator - Deep AI integrations - Unique, flexible Oracle There’s jusy one big missing ingredient, and that’s liquidity. Something we’re laser focused on solving. The good news is that we have a ton of tools at our disposal to improve liquidity. The great news is that we know exactly how to get there.

Building completely immutable protocols is one way to pass the walk away test. But in 2026, there’s another way. It may have seemed like fantasy for autonomous onchain protocols to compete with commercial businesses back in 2021. But with modern AI, truly autonomous systems that can make that dream a reality. We can now build systems that are fully operated by AI on behalf of users and token holders. Better yet, you can build an open source, protocol-specific Agent along aide the project that acts as a representative for users/token holders. This is totally doable and feasible already. Imagine a project that not only passes the walk away test, but also gains momentum and grows post-walkaway!

The breadth of markets covered on our App since we launched this feature is impressive. Only two other prediction markets have this sort of coverage. And both of them are ultra-capitalized behemoths. Now we need to level up our liquidity so we can really compete.