Binary settlement contracts can and will be disrupted because polymarket and kalshi are servicing only one side of a two-sided marketplace. They both service the trading aspect of event contracts. The others side of that coin is the market creator. Poly and kalshi ask the questions, and all traders can do is answer them. Disruption comes from breaking that pattern and aggregating market ideas from the crowd. Going from a single full-time team of curators to a permissionless system that harnesses ideas from the internet as they spawn, is the breakthrough. “Crowdsourcing” doesn’t have to be a system of chaos with no structure and hundreds of duplicate markets. A proper permissionless system enables curators, domain specific experts, users with online reach, regulars on the prediction platform, and ppl who just come up with unique ideas, all the same. Poly and Kalshi are ignoring half the game, which means there’s a big opportunity up for grabs.

Trueo’s biggest competitive edge is that we have the most mature permissionless prediction market product out there. No cheap ‘beta’ tags. No gimmicks. Create event contracts for any idea or question, in seconds. - Yield bearing markets - Onchain orderbook - Well tuned market generator - Deep AI integrations - Unique, flexible Oracle There’s jusy one big missing ingredient, and that’s liquidity. Something we’re laser focused on solving. The good news is that we have a ton of tools at our disposal to improve liquidity. The great news is that we know exactly how to get there.

Building completely immutable protocols is one way to pass the walk away test. But in 2026, there’s another way. It may have seemed like fantasy for autonomous onchain protocols to compete with commercial businesses back in 2021. But with modern AI, truly autonomous systems that can make that dream a reality. We can now build systems that are fully operated by AI on behalf of users and token holders. Better yet, you can build an open source, protocol-specific Agent along aide the project that acts as a representative for users/token holders. This is totally doable and feasible already. Imagine a project that not only passes the walk away test, but also gains momentum and grows post-walkaway!

The breadth of markets covered on our App since we launched this feature is impressive. Only two other prediction markets have this sort of coverage. And both of them are ultra-capitalized behemoths. Now we need to level up our liquidity so we can really compete.

Building anything decentralized in 2026, is an insane uphill battle. You’re constantly compared to centralized alternatives that are 1000x more well resourced. You have to work way harder to reproduce a thing that’s easy to do in a centralized way. The cost is significantly higher. The simplest contract change requires a new round of audits. In a centralized system, that same change is quick overnight tweak to the code running on a local server. Users don’t appreciate it until it’s too late. And even when they’re reminded why it matters, they forget quickly after cuz they have goldfish memory. There’s no longer a value premium for doing anything in a decentralized way, and often there’s a discount applied. It just takes a lot of commitment to stick by decentralization in 2026. If you’re building something that optimizes for decentralization in this era, you’re in a unique crowd. A minority. Ppl will crack jokes about you on X. They’ll discourage you. They’ll dismiss you. They’ll say you shouldn’t exist because the centralized options are sufficient. You need real heart and determination to build for decentralization in 2026. But if you can weather through it and stay committed, eventually ppl will appreciate what you built. They’ll be grateful because this industry derives its purpose from the values of decentralization. Every so often, the crowd returns to it its roots. And when they do, you’ll gey your recognition. It ain’t much, but it’s honest work.

To be clear, I’m not saying that trading volume across PMs will shrink. I think volumes and activity will continue to increase. But I, and many other traders believe that a significant portion of that growing activity will consolidate around a base of sophisticated actors.

Crypto has this disillusionment cycle that’s heavily correlated with price action. And it’s also the premise that drives memecoins. But I feel like the cynics have been winning for too long now. It only takes one breakout app that’s born from the “trenches” to flip this script.

Talk to any professional prediction market trader about what they believe the forecaster landscape will look like in 5-10 years. Their responses will be consistent: Trading volume/activity will be overwhelmingly dominated by a consolidated base of AI agents and prop firms. There will be little room for someone to step in and make money as a trader. That means the forward looking addressable market for PM trading is actually shrinking. But that doesn’t mean PMs as a sector will stop growing, it means the bigger opportunity is in letting users create markets. “Creating markets” reduces down to asking questions about the future. Something that anyone on earth can do. The TAM is magnitudes on magnitudes larger than anything which requires someone to place a wager. It’s a social experience on the surface. The trading aspect operates underneath, resurfacing “answers” via real-time odds. But the main product is enabling questions in the first place. That’s the unlock. That’s the opportunity. Allowing anyone to ask questions about the future, and letting the free-market respond with an answer.

User definitely want it. Actually I increasingly believe that users (including KOLs, media outlets, businesses, and all other forms of entities) prefer creating markets to trading. Trading is too skill based, mistakes are way too costly. The TAM is limited by that very nature. But asking questions is effortless and comes with asymmetric upside via creator fees if the question provokes traders. What you probably mean, without actually saying it, is that liquidity is hard to attract for user created markets. Which may be true, but that doesn’t mean users don’t want to create them in the first place. Just means there’s a huge opportunity to solve for that one liquidity problem.

Think about it this way: For many of us, our social reputations are our most prized assets. The ultimate form of capital. Given how valuable our social identities are, why wouldn’t we want them to have the same decentralization guarantees that our money does?

Trueo is the perfect example of a product that couldn’t exist without both crypto and AI Prediction Markets created by users with AI generated contracts that are committed onchain and settled using an enshrined oracle. Cutting edge 2026 stuff.

Decentralized socials is still an ultra wide open opportunity. All the projects that attempted to break through in this vertical have failed much like prediction markets used to in the early 2000’s through till 2020. The ingredients needed to make DeSo happen are probably all already here too, I bet a break through app will merge the available tools in a way that’ll seem obvious in hindsight. NFTs, crypto rails, prediction markets, zkCredentials, and everything else around us will all play a part. I know cuz I’ve thought about it a hundred times before.