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Trueo
@Trueo_
Permissionless User-Created Prediction Markets.
38 Following    2.4K Followers
NEW GRADUATED MARKET 🎓🚨 Will any Prediction Market token go parabolic (≥10x) before 2027? Odds: 3%
🇺🇸🇪🇺 Will Trump strike a NEW trade agreement with the EU before 2027? Resolves YES only if the US and EU sign a fresh, legally binding trade agreement (not an MOU or member-state-only deal) after this market's creation and before Jan 1, 2027. 📜 Status: New Proposal.
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JUST IN: 🇪🇺🇮🇱 European Union countries consider banning trade with Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, Palestine.
💰 Will Ledger's IPO debut close above a $2B market cap? Resolves YES if Ledger's shares close their first public trading day at a market cap (closing price × fully diluted shares, per its final prospectus) strictly above $2B, before Jan 1, 2028 Status: New Proposal.
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gm. your crypto is in self-custody or it isn't. no judgment. just know which one.
🚀 Will @grvt_io's $GRVT FDV top $300M within a day of launch? Resolves YES if GRVT becomes tradable on a CEX/DEX and its FDV exceeds $300M at any point within 24h of that launch, before Dec 31, 2027. Status: New Proposal.
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To delay, or not to delay, that is the question! Airdrop reg is open for $GRVT (make sure to complete by July 17th) - 1x @ TGE - 2x @ 4 months cliff - 4x @ 8 months cliff Pre market is moving $350M now Polymarket now 67% to be $300M day What’s the play here? Take the 1x now or delayed gratification for 8 months for x4 ??
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NEW PROPOSAL 🚨 Will Mitch McConnell finish his current Senate term?
GRADUATED MARKET 🎓 Will Extended’s token FDV exceed $300M one day after launch?
NEW GRADUATION 🎓 Will Cash Cat (CASHCAT) on Robinhood Chain reach a $1B market cap by Jan 1, 2027?
Everyone's talking about Robinhood Chain right now. So I checked @Polymarket and there aren't many markets covering what's happening. That's exactly why I'm bullish on @Trueo_ 🥳 You can create your own prediction market in under 30 seconds and turn the hottest narratives into tradable markets before everyone else catches on. So here's one: Will $CASHCAT reach a $1B market cap before the end of 2026? 👀 Yes or No?
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NEW MARKET 🚨 Will Opus 5 match or exceed GPT-5.6-Sol on the MMLU benchmark?
Will Samsung send Loui Rossamann a replacement SSD? Resolves YES only if Samsung (or an authorized reseller) ships/delivers a replacement SSD to Louis Rossmann, confirmed via official Samsung comms or his own verified post. Deadline: Jan 1, 2027. Status: New Proposal.
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This guy bought Samsung’s 990 Pro 4 TB SSD when it was ~$330 and now Samsung REFUSES to replace it as the SSD now costs ~$950 due to the AI boom. The SSD came with a 5-year warranty but started malfunctioning after just one year. He sent Samsung evidence showing the drive was malfunctioning. Samsung rejected his claim, said it was working fine, and mailed it back to him. When asked for a replacement, Samsung said the SSD was “out of stock” and couldn’t be replaced, offering only a refund of the original ~$330 purchase price. The problem? The same SSD is currently IN STOCK and selling for around $950, so the refund wouldn’t even buy a replacement. He’s now taking legal action against Samsung. At this point, replacing the SSD would’ve probably been cheaper for Samsung than fighting the lawsuit. 😭
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Will @JDVance be the 2028 Republican nominee? Resolves YES only if the RNC formally nominates or officially names Vance as the party's 2028 nominee. Primary wins, self-declarations, or media reports alone don't count. Status: New Proposal.
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🚀 Will Elon Musk merge SpaceX and Tesla before 2028? Resolves YES only if the two become one legal entity via completed merger or consolidation, official filings required. Announcements, LOIs, or partnerships don't count. Status: New Proposal.
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👨‍🌾 Will the next NFP report show positive job growth? Resolves YES only if the next BLS Employment Situation release shows a strictly positive month-over-month change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls. Later revisions don't count, only the headline print at release. Status: New Proposal.
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GRADUATED MARKET 🚨 Will Polymarket publicly respond to @willo2_Poly?
🏦 Will the Fed hold rates steady at the next FOMC meeting? Resolves YES only if the FOMC's next scheduled decision keeps both bounds of the target range numerically unchanged from today's range, before Jul 30, 2026. Any change in either bound resolves NO. Status: New Proposal.
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🚀 Will SpaceX shares trade under $100 in 2026? Resolves YES only if SpaceX's per-share price trades strictly below $100 for a continuous 10+ minute window before Jan 1, 2027. Splits and redenominations adjust pro rata. Status: Graduated, market is live.
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NEW MARKET 🚨 Will Vitalik's anonymous document be found before September?
13 days. So far no one has found it. My only hint is that I would encourage people to somewhat broaden their search; I've seen quite a few searches and AI scripts that fail to include categories of documents that really should be included.
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Prediction markets like Polymarket are one sided marketplaces. They strictly allow users to wager answers to questions asked by the app. But what if Polymarket isn’t posing all the right questions?
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Talk to any professional prediction market trader about what they believe the forecaster landscape will look like in 5-10 years. Their responses will be consistent: Trading volume/activity will be overwhelmingly dominated by a consolidated base of AI agents and prop firms. There will be little room for someone to step in and make money as a trader. That means the forward looking addressable market for PM trading is actually shrinking. But that doesn’t mean PMs as a sector will stop growing, it means the bigger opportunity is in letting users create markets. “Creating markets” reduces down to asking questions about the future. Something that anyone on earth can do. The TAM is magnitudes on magnitudes larger than anything which requires someone to place a wager. It’s a social experience on the surface. The trading aspect operates underneath, resurfacing “answers” via real-time odds. But the main product is enabling questions in the first place. That’s the unlock. That’s the opportunity. Allowing anyone to ask questions about the future, and letting the free-market respond with an answer.
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