Discussion with @MarkusEconomist about Messy Jobs: To take it this Summer to the beach, here is the link: (And if you have read it and have a chance to review, we appreciate it).

And again, and again, and again, the market proves to be more flexible and adaptable than the engineers, extrapolating, with their calculators expect. When prices change, behaviour changes. Believe in substitution, in elasticity, in human ingenuity, that is, in the market, and you will get a closer approximation than all doom-mongers. For this of course, a market must exist (e.g., does not apply to the fertility collapse).

Back from a German conference. Stayed at a not-cheap hotel (fittingly called "Bad Hotel"): hand towels instead of body towels, no air-conditioning in 30+ degree weather, a printed request that I skip room cleaning. I checked last night the instant electricity mix: most electricity produced was from coal. Germany has made the choice to be poor. It could have cheap, safe, abundant energy from nuclear. Instead it has chosen expensive, high carbon energy.

No smoking gun, but the preponderance of evidence points to smartphones, not economics, as the culprit for the global drop in fertility: • In the US and UK, births fell first and fastest in areas that got 4G earliest • Birth rates were stable in the US, UK and Australia until 2007; in France and Poland until 2009; in Mexico and Indonesia until 2012; in Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal until 2013-15 Each of these inflection points matches local smartphone adoption (see picture). • The younger the age group, the sharper the drop. • in-person socialising among young adults is dropping. In SK, by 50% in 20 years • Sexual dysfunction is higher among heavy social media user • Effect is largest in culturally traditional societies — Middle East, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa • Decline holds across countries hit hard by GFC 2008 and those not hit, fast-growing and not growing. Excellent again @jburnmurdoch.