Tesla's FSD Supervised is at 14.9 billion miles and will pass 15 billion by month's end. The chart is about to go vertical, and it matters more than you think. The first billion took about 3.5 years. The billion from 1B to 2B took 202 days. The latest billion, from 14B to 15B, is taking about 29 days, roughly 34.5 million miles a day. The pace has gone up about 7x in two years, and it will keep accelerating. Tesla also claims 7x fewer collisions than human drivers. From the start, Tesla diehards were convinced FSD could outdrive the average human, but to be fair, the evidence just wasn’t there in sufficient volume. Given how quickly things have moved lately, the dataset is now sizable enough, and it is Tesla’s strongest card to play with regulators, with Europe shaping up as the next proving ground. This is what's being decided. In April 2026, the Netherlands approved FSD Supervised for its own roads. It used a special exemption because EU rules don't cover a system like this yet. Since then, seven countries have recognized it nationally: the Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, Belgium, Slovenia, and Czechia. Together they cover only about 12% of the EU's population. EU-wide approval needs a qualified majority in the EU's vehicle committee (the TCMV). That means at least 15 of 27 member states, representing 65% of the population. The math makes Germany, France, Italy, and Spain the swing votes. Without them, there's no path to 65%. The committee was expected to vote in October. It now won't vote until December, per Reuters. It has discussed the Dutch request at least twice, including in late June, but has not called a vote. The agenda gives no official reason, but reporting points to three concerns. - First, FSD sometimes exceeds posted speed limits to keep up with traffic. - Next, regulators question whether driver-attention monitoring holds up in dense city driving. - Last, most of Tesla's data comes from US roads, and regulators want to know whether it transfers to European cyclists, motorbikes, and old city layouts. Europe really excels at hitting the brakes on adopting new technology. - Tesla's FSD in Europe doesn't enable Mad Max mode or anything like that, so it won't speed up. - The second and third are really about software capabilities. If they still assume we have different cyclists, motorbikes, or layouts, Tesla will fail to adapt. I don't know what to tell them. France just woke up and only started its own on-road tests with UTAC in early September and wants those results before it takes a position. I think it’s not just Europe being cautious. Lobbying likely plays a role too. European carmakers have dominated for a long time, but they’re starting to lose ground as Chinese competitors expand, and Tesla, especially with FSD, would be a formidable competitor, too. Elon's reaction to the delay was one word: "sigh." The bigger point is that Tesla adds a billion miles every month, and every month the "US-only data" objection gets weaker as 7 European countries have already approved FSD anyway. Long TSLA, short EU. If you like my posts, consider following for more insights and market commentary.