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The Macro Paper
@macropaperr
Global Capital Markets Simplified: News, Research, Every Macro Headwind.
57 Following    34.6K Followers
🚨 Anthropic's valuation has crashed nearly 50% before its IPO even went live. Just a month ago, the AI giant was reportedly aiming for $2 Trillion. Now, Reuters reports an IPO valuation target of just $1.02 Trillion, even with Google, Nvidia, and AMD among its major backers. This comes as AI stocks are crashing and investors are increasingly worried about massive data center spending and rising debt. And the risk goes far beyond Anthropic. If other AI companies face similar valuation pressure, investors who borrowed against their AI holdings could be forced to raise cash or sell assets. That could trigger even more selling across an AI market that's already under heavy pressure.
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🚨 BIGGEST SINGLE-DAY WIPEOUT IN US STOCK MARKET HISTORY $2.8 Trillion has been wiped out from the US stock market today so far, the largest one in history. Previously, the largest single-day wipeout was of $2.69 Trillion during the Covid crash.
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BREAKING: S&P 500 equal-weighted Index is now underperforming the S&P 500 by its largest margin in 23 years. Just a handful of companies are pushing the stock market higher, while the majority is being crushed by rising yields. This is exactly what happened before the 2000 dot-com crash.
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BREAKING: 🇯🇵 Japan's 30Y bond yield just hit 4.24%, its highest level ever.
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BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West oil pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Oil has dropped below $90 on this news.
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🚨 SOMETHING REALLY BAD IS HAPPENING AROUND THE WORLD, AND MOST PEOPLE HAVE NO IDEA. • Iran says it has intelligence that a major new U.S. or allied attack is being prepared and warns it would retaliate against U.S. bases and regional allies. • The Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, while Houthi advances now threaten shipping through Bab el-Mandeb too. • Houthis launched fresh missile and drone attacks, while also claiming attacks on oil infrastructure. • Houthis are now warning Turkey and Pakistan of a “decisive and painful response” if they militarily intervene alongside the Middle East. • France is calling for an emergency G7 discussion on the energy crisis, including possible releases from strategic reserves. • Ukraine struck one of Russia’s major oil refineries, forcing the 300,000-barrel-per-day Yaroslavl refinery to halt crude processing. • European leaders are warning about growing Russian hybrid attacks, while fears of a wider Russia-NATO confrontation are rising. Two major wars. Two critical shipping chokepoints under threat. Oil infrastructure being attacked. And more countries are getting pulled in. This looks like the beginning of something terrible.
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🚨EUROPEAN BOND MARKET IS IMPLODING 🇫🇷 France's 10Y bond yield hits 4.16%, the highest since 2008. 🇩🇪 Germany's 10Y bond yield hits 3.31%, the highest since 2011. 🇵🇹 Portugal's 10Y bond yield hits 3.665%, the highest since 2023. 🇮🇹 Italy's 10Y bond yield hits 4.15%, the highest since 2024. 🇪🇸 Spain's 10Y bond yield hits 3.76%, the highest since 2024. First Japan, then the US, and now Europe, the bond market is indicating a major global crisis is imminent.
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BREAKING: 🇨🇳 China's 5Y bond yield crashed 7% today and hit a 20-month low. The 5Y yield is now just 2.5 bps away from hitting a record low. While other bond markets are selling off, investors are pouring money into Chinese bonds.
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🚨 LIQUIDITY IS MOVING INTO CHINESE BONDS Just now, the Chinese 10Y bond yield hit a 12-month low of 1.68%. Bond yields going lower means bond prices are rising, which means liquidity is exiting the other bond markets, like the US and Japan, and moving into China.
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JUST IN: USD/JPY has hit a 40-year high. This is really bad for Japanese companies and consumers.
PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST DID IT AGAIN. "Go out and buy a Dell computer." The stock price just shot up 5% within minutes.