Tarek Mansour(@mansourtarek_):Yesterday Kalshi priced the Wisconsin Democratic Primary at 95–5. The 5% candidate won. Before the "prediction markets got it wrong" headlines roll in: a 5% probability doesn't mean it won't happen. It means it should happen 1 in 20 times. If 5% candidates never won, the markets would be broken. The Washington Post analyzed prediction market calibration on hundreds of primary races

2026.08.12 15:49

Yesterday Kalshi priced the Wisconsin Democratic Primary at 95–5. The 5% candidate won. Before the "prediction markets got it wrong" headlines roll in: a 5% probability doesn't mean it won't happen. It means it should happen 1 in 20 times. If 5% candidates never won, the markets would be broken. The Washington Post analyzed prediction market calibration on hundreds of primary races — here's what they found: