đ The CLARITY Act was supposed to pass "in a few weeks." That was months ago.
What's blocking it?
Ethics.
The Senate can't agree on one thing: rules for politicians who personally hold crypto. The Trump family holds billions in it. And the senator negotiating those rules, Kirsten Gillibrand, just watched her own son launch a derivatives exchange backed by a Ripple co-founder.
To pass, the bill needs 60 votes. That means at least 7 Democrats. Two of them already said: no strong ethics rules, no vote.
Now the calendar đ:
The Senate returns July 13 and leaves again August 8. That's about 20 working days to get everything done. Two Senate committees each passed their own version of the bill, and those still need to be merged into one.
And those 20 days are already crowded: the SAVE Act (election law) and the housing package are eating the agenda. Analysts say the bill needs to clear the Senate by late July, or its chances collapse.
The market agrees. Galaxy Digital puts 2026 passage around 50%. Polymarket prices it near 49%, down from 74% just a month ago.
If it doesn't pass by August, it's 2027 at best. Midterms will freeze everything.