Elon and Chamath raise valid concerns about neocloud leverage and capital discipline.
Yet GPU rental rates continue to rise, with H100s up 35% since January, per a16z.
2027 could bring a reckoning for weaker operators. But neocloud is an industry label, not a credit rating.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.