Spot $BTC ETFs just had their worst day since June (here's our thesis): -$635.6M yesterday, $254M of it from BlackRock's IBIT. We went back through every big IBIT outflow since launch. When IBIT loses more than $300M in a day, $BTC has averaged -8.2% over the next 30 days. On a normal day, it's +3.0%. But the last cluster of big outflows landed right at the $58k bottom in late June. Heavy selling has meant more downside, and it has also meant capitulation. The backdrop isn't helping. The White House says no Iran strikes before the midterms, with reports of strikes being planned for right after the vote. China's CSI 300 just entered its first bear market since 2020. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% yesterday, Tesla cut its 2026 capex plan to about $20B, and attackers are hitting everything from web servers to hardware wallets. $BTC is at $81.7k, right on the average ETF buyer's cost basis. If the outflows stack up from here, history says the next month gets rough. If yesterday was a one-off, this is where buyers have stepped in twice already this month.

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