Bitcoin held up well in October, and I remain positive on where it goes from here.
October gave Bitcoin multiple different kinds of shocks. The US 10-year yield hit 5.34%, its highest since 2002. Brent crude had a fourth straight monthly gain, touching a high above $119 as the Iran conflict and attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz kept supply at risk.
CoreWeave and the neoclouds then came under credit stress, with CoreWeave’s bonds yielding 15-16% and its shares down more than 30%. Finally, Binance lost about $6.3bn in the largest hack in crypto history.
Until the Binance hack, Bitcoin traded in a range of roughly $80,000 to $87,000, while the Nasdaq fell 5.3% on the month. The hack was a failure at one exchange, not at the Bitcoin network, and Binance has pledged to cover all losses.
Although Bitcoin closed October down 7.3%, the low of the month tested the 50-week moving average at around $75,700, a key bull market support. Bitcoin held it and finished above it for the second month running.
Despite the biggest crypto exchange hack in history, Bitcoin was hit less than the rest of the market on Friday. The Nasdaq fell 2.9%, the S&P 500 1.8% and gold about 3%, and Bitcoin fell by less than all three.
Rising yields, oil above $110, stretched credit and a record hack in a single month is a hostile backdrop. Bitcoin continues to show strong relative strength against each negative catalyst that hits it, and that is why my outlook stays positive.
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