The popular prediction for tonight: Democrats will sweep both the House and Senate. The polling data is pretty overwhelming. Democrats are ahead by roughly 8 points nationally. Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing around 94% odds of Democrats taking the House and 75% odds of winning the Senate. But I think there’s a real possibility the blue wave ends up being much more muted than expected. Look at the Senate map. Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024. Kansas by 16 points. Iowa and Alaska by 13 points each. Ohio by 11 points. Yet Democrats are now polling competitively in all five states. Of course midterms are often a referendum on the sitting administration rather than a permanent shift in political allegiance. Pollsters have also underestimated Republican support in recent presidential elections. I wouldn’t rule out some major surprises tonight. Now here’s where I think things get interesting for financial markets and crypto. I expect an initial selloff across stocks and crypto if Democrats sweep Congress. Crypto will likely get hit harder given its higher beta and how closely the industry has become associated with Trump and Republicans. But there’s an important distinction between what prediction markets expect and what financial markets have actually priced in. A Democratic sweep is already the consensus in election betting markets. A narrower victory could actually be received positively by risk assets. More importantly I think even a full Democratic sweep could end up being a positive development for crypto in the long run. Hear me out. Over the past two years crypto has increasingly become synonymous with Trump and the Republican Party. While this has helped accelerate regulatory progress it also creates a dangerous perception that the industry’s success depends on one president or political party remaining in power. That is not healthy for an industry seeking to fundamentally reshape the global financial system. Crypto needs to become an issue that both parties can support. The more we distance the industry’s future from any single politician the stronger its long term prospects become. And it’s not as though all regulatory progress disappears with a change in Congress. Trump will still control the White House. The SEC and CFTC are also independent federal agencies whose leadership and regulatory agendas don’t automatically change after a midterm election. Both have already begun advancing major crypto initiatives. I expect much of that work to continue over the coming years even if Congress becomes more divided and comprehensive legislation takes longer to pass. There’s also an interesting historical precedent. The S&P 500 has risen in the 12 months following all 19 midterm elections since 1950 with an average gain of around 15%. History isn’t a guarantee of future returns but it’s a useful reminder that markets eventually move beyond elections. Interest rates and liquidity will matter much more over time than which party controls Congress. My prediction is that any initial weakness will be temporary and followed by a much stronger ascent across crypto and broader risk assets. For crypto the bigger picture is even clearer. The world’s largest financial institutions are already bringing assets and entire financial markets onchain. They’re doing this because blockchain offers real economic advantages. Not because of who happens to occupy the White House. If crypto can only thrive under one political party then we haven’t built a very resilient industry. Crypto is bigger than Trump. Bigger than Democrats. Bigger than any one politician. The next decade of crypto won’t be decided by who wins tonight. It’ll be decided by the builders putting in the work every day to make crypto a resounding success.