"You go to the supermarket and steak's on sale, you think: this is great. And in investing, the price of something goes down, you ask yourself: well, what's wrong?" @LawrenceLepard on the one market where people hate a discount — and how the great investors exploit exactly that: "This is how Warren Buffett and other great investors have beaten the markets. They're willing to understand what something is fundamentally worth. And when it becomes cheap relative to what it's fundamentally worth, they buy it." His yardstick for Bitcoin is the power law model — "96% correlation with the data since the time Bitcoin was launched" — which currently puts the median value around $134,000, against a market price near $58,000. And the sizing rule he gives friends: "buy a number that if it goes down 50%, rather than freaking out and saying I made a mistake, you'll think to yourself: no, this was on sale. I want to buy some more." Translation: the discipline isn't predicting the bottom. It's having a model of worth before the discount shows up — because without one, every sale looks like something's wrong, and every rally looks like proof. His model, his numbers, his call.