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Nick Gerli
@nickgerli1
CEO of Reventure App. Home price forecasts and fair value for every U.S. ZIP code.
309 Following    161.2K Followers
U.S. real estate investment has collapsed by 50% over the last four years. The reason? It's now more profitable to sit on your couch and buy a 10-year government bond than to buy an investment property. 10-year yields are now 5.1%. While the single-family cap rate for rentals is 4.8%. For the first time in nearly two decades, buying real estate for cash flow has a negative opportunity cost v buying government bonds. And as a result, the number of people buying investment properties has plummeted by 50% over the last four years. This is having a massive price impact on certain markets. Track Cap Rates for your area at
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A mass homebuyer exodus is hitting Miami. Transactions have fallen 47% from their pandemic peak. From 3,600 in August 2021. To only 1,900 in August 2026. This represents the lowest sales activity Miami-Dade has seen since the end of the last housing crash. In fact, sales today are about 25% below pre-pandemic norms. The reason this is happening is because locals in Miami cannot afford the prices. The typical mortgage payment in Miami-Dade, inclusive of taxes and insurance, is $5,000/month. While the local median income is only $80,000. The math simply doesn't make sense, and buyers are locked out as a result. Zoom in to your ZIP to see sales and price data at
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A major housing headwind is about to hit. And that's the Baby Boomer exodus from the U.S. Housing Market. In the next decade, the share of U.S. population above 75 will skyrocket. Meaning Baby Boomer owners who fueled the housing market over the last 20 years will turn into sellers they age out. And Gen X, the next generation in line to buy up those homes, won't be able to absorb it. As they are 20% smaller in population than the Baby Boomers. The result is that by 2037, there will be more 75+ aged Americans than 55-64 aged Americans. Which will be a first in modern U.S. History. This will lead to lower homebuyer demand, more supply, and lower prices in retirement destinations. Especially across Florida and Arizona. To see how this demographic data for your area, check
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