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Nick Gerli
@nickgerli1
CEO of Reventure App. Home price forecasts and fair value for every U.S. ZIP code. For press, e-mail info@reventure.app
314 Following    163.9K Followers
We're seeing a new trend on the U.S. Housing Market. Investors selling at losses. In this case, the investor bought for $377,000 at the peak in 2022. It looks like they rented it out for a couple years around $2,100/month. Fast forward to 2026, they're listing at a $32,000 loss to their original purhcase ($345k). And accounting for realtor fees and closing costs, this loss could be closer to $50,000. The reason this is happening is because the economics of owning single-family rentals no longer make sense, especially in Sun Belt markets like Nashville. Rent growth is flat, operating costs are rising, and treasury yields are higher than cap rates. Which is causing investors to not only stop buying, but to also start selling (at losses). I ran the math here and to get a 5% unlevered cap rate on this rental, you'd need to offer $275k. Indicating more downside could be coming. Analyze listings now at:
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The worst housing market over the last decade is somewhere people would least expect. Manhattan. Values in New York County dropped by -11.9% from September 2016 to 2026, falling from 1.41M to 1.24M. Which is an astounding -51.2% drop in inflation-adjusted terms. Condo/co-op/townhome values inn Manhattan are now at record lows compared to incomes and rents. Making it one of the most undervalued housing markets in America, despite it's still expensive price tag. Values have actually started turning recently, up 3% YoY. Meaning it could be a good time to buy in NYC. Check the value trends for your county at:
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U.S. real estate investment has collapsed by 50% over the last four years. The reason? It's now more profitable to sit on your couch and buy a 10-year government bond than to buy an investment property. 10-year yields are now 5.1%. While the single-family cap rate for rentals is 4.8%. For the first time in nearly two decades, buying real estate for cash flow has a negative opportunity cost v buying government bonds. And as a result, the number of people buying investment properties has plummeted by 50% over the last four years. This is having a massive price impact on certain markets. Track Cap Rates for your area at
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A mass homebuyer exodus is hitting Miami. Transactions have fallen 47% from their pandemic peak. From 3,600 in August 2021. To only 1,900 in August 2026. This represents the lowest sales activity Miami-Dade has seen since the end of the last housing crash. In fact, sales today are about 25% below pre-pandemic norms. The reason this is happening is because locals in Miami cannot afford the prices. The typical mortgage payment in Miami-Dade, inclusive of taxes and insurance, is $5,000/month. While the local median income is only $80,000. The math simply doesn't make sense, and buyers are locked out as a result. Zoom in to your ZIP to see sales and price data at
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A major housing headwind is about to hit. And that's the Baby Boomer exodus from the U.S. Housing Market. In the next decade, the share of U.S. population above 75 will skyrocket. Meaning Baby Boomer owners who fueled the housing market over the last 20 years will turn into sellers they age out. And Gen X, the next generation in line to buy up those homes, won't be able to absorb it. As they are 20% smaller in population than the Baby Boomers. The result is that by 2037, there will be more 75+ aged Americans than 55-64 aged Americans. Which will be a first in modern U.S. History. This will lead to lower homebuyer demand, more supply, and lower prices in retirement destinations. Especially across Florida and Arizona. To see how this demographic data for your area, check
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