The "extreme" scenarios here are not nearly extreme enough because they only assume knowledge work will get automated. Physical labor could get automated by 2030 as well. The size of the economy could be 10x what it is today.
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@METR_Evals is reviewing the "Misalignment in high-stakes settings" section of this risk report. For previous reviews, see:
Automating AI capabilities R&D is probably among the most harmful full-time jobs in the world and does not contribute to public benefit.
If we automated it tomorrow, this would probably result in human extinction because we are nowhere near being ready to control or align ASI.
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This essay tries to present a positive vision of superintelligence but doesn't actually take ASI seriously at all. Why would humans still start and manage businesses once ASI exists?
Yet another "vision for ASI" that, as step 1, assumes that ASI won't happen.
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