Few words on $UBER:
It actually started to look like a no-brainer.
It’s currently at 15x 2027 earnings and 12x 2028 earnings while double digit annual growth expected through 2030.
So, the only reason it gets this discount is that the market doesn’t fully believe shareholders will really get the future cash flows. It’s concerned of potential disruption by robotaxis.
That won’t happen.
People always underestimate the tendency for aggregation.
Even if autonomous taxis become mainstream globally, it’ll be a pretty fragmented market with Waymo, Tesla, AVride, Zoox etc.
How many apps people are willing to download for mobility?
What the market misses is that fragmentation is not just a problem for consumers, it’s also a viability issue for providers.
We are looking at what’ll be a capex heavy business. Companies will need monopoly/oligopoly to deploy fleets globally, maintain and replace them regularly and still provide affordable rides to consumers. If this won’t happen, the business won’t be viable.
So, over time, we’ll see companies like Tesla and Waymo to position themselves as equipment providers (OEM) rather than service providers and platforms like $UBER will act as service providers.
Yes, $UBER could have had a faster pivot to robotaxis so far, but it is still the primary candidate to dominate the market and 15x 2027 earnings more than makes up for the execution risk.
They scale robotaxis in a few big cities and we’ll quickly see the stock above $100 again.
$SPCX:
$18 billion revenue, -$10 billion net income, valued at $2.2 trillion
$META:
$215 billion revenue, $70 billion net income, valued at $1.45 trillion
But yeah it all makes sense..