Ray Dalio: “The debt problem is followed by devaluation of the currency.” Every country with a debt problem said they would grow their way out of debt. They all ended up devaluing their currencies.

Ray Dalio: “The only way to resolve the debt problem is printing money and devaluing the currency.” This is exactly what we are seeing. Money supply has grown by 6.7% annually since 2000. It’ll only get worse as the US debt is growing at a record pace. You have to own assets.

Agentic AI will drive substantial growth for $AMZN e-commerce. Data actually validates it. Online stores sales growth have accelerated every year since ChatGPT’s release in late 2022. People are buying products that they didn’t even know existed thanks to AI.

$META 12 analysts updated their ratings since the settlement in the addiction case was announced. 8 of them reiterated buy ratings. BMO Capital has the lowest price target at $580. Stock is currently even below that. Price will catch up with the improving sentiment.

$TSM is probably the best risk/reward profile in the whole semiconductor industry now. Major designers are expected to grow by, on average, 37% annually over the next three years. Meanwhile, $TSM 2027 P/E is just 18x and 2028 14x. Those chips won't manufacture themselves.

$NVDA now has the highest forward 3-year revenue CAGR expectation among the major chip designers after guiding for 70% growth next year: $NVDA: 58% $AVGO: 54% $AMD: 51% $MRVL: 42% $ARM: 30% $INTC: 16% $QCOM: 6% Yet it's the second cheapest on a 2027 P/E basis.

$META compute optionality is ridiculously undervalued. $META is expected to have 5 GW of excess compute by 2030. Its cost of deploying 1 GW of capacity is reportedly around $38 billion. Wells Fargo estimates it can charge around $20 billion per GW with around a 73% net margin, resulting in $14.6 billion in net income per year. This means a 38% annual after-tax return on the initial compute capex. Even if we assume that its average total cost of deployment increases 50% by 2030 and settles around $57 billion while the resale price remains the same, we’ll still be looking at a 26% after-tax ROI. The market gives almost $0 value to this.

Investor pessimism toward $META is at its highest level since 2022. The stock is now down by 25% over the past year. Here are 10 reasons why it’s actually a great opportunity here: 🧵

What to expect from potential $META settlement with the states: States know that they can’t get the $200 billion they ask. In July, a Florida teenager dropped an addiction lawsuit against $META without any payments. Last week another teen from New Jersey dropped her addiction case without any payments. States likely started to think they may not get anything at all out of these cases so they now want to settle to get at least something. In a realistic scenario where $META lost, realistic estimate of its total liability would be between $20-$40 billion as the US courts have historically awarded around 2% of the statutory maximum or 20% of the ask in cases where they face enormous maximums that could endanger the business environment. So, obviously any settlement should be way below that amount. If the settlement happens, I expect the final number to be around $10 billion. It doesn’t lead to a material change in $META’s terminal value and the stock will likely have some relief rally.

$AAPL App store revenue dropped first time in a decade while uploads are at record high thanks to AI. AI is driving productivity, but it doesn’t translate to revenues. This means, in the short term, we should expect to see AI’s benefits mostly in the form of efficiency gains.

Ray Dalio: “Deficit should go below 3% of GDP or there’ll be a supply-demand problem in bonds.” He said this last year, and now it’s happening. Nobody wants 30-year US bonds below 5%. Now Citadel says the same and warns for higher inflation. Dump the dollar, own hard assets.

Investor pessimism toward $META is at its highest level since 2022. The stock is now down by 25% over the past year. Here are 10 reasons why it’s actually a great opportunity here: 🧵

Few words on $UBER: It actually started to look like a no-brainer. It’s currently at 15x 2027 earnings and 12x 2028 earnings while double digit annual growth expected through 2030. So, the only reason it gets this discount is that the market doesn’t fully believe shareholders will really get the future cash flows. It’s concerned of potential disruption by robotaxis. That won’t happen. People always underestimate the tendency for aggregation. Even if autonomous taxis become mainstream globally, it’ll be a pretty fragmented market with Waymo, Tesla, AVride, Zoox etc. How many apps people are willing to download for mobility? What the market misses is that fragmentation is not just a problem for consumers, it’s also a viability issue for providers. We are looking at what’ll be a capex heavy business. Companies will need monopoly/oligopoly to deploy fleets globally, maintain and replace them regularly and still provide affordable rides to consumers. If this won’t happen, the business won’t be viable. So, over time, we’ll see companies like Tesla and Waymo to position themselves as equipment providers (OEM) rather than service providers and platforms like $UBER will act as service providers. Yes, $UBER could have had a faster pivot to robotaxis so far, but it is still the primary candidate to dominate the market and 15x 2027 earnings more than makes up for the execution risk. They scale robotaxis in a few big cities and we’ll quickly see the stock above $100 again.

$SPCX: $18 billion revenue, -$10 billion net income, valued at $2.2 trillion $META: $215 billion revenue, $70 billion net income, valued at $1.45 trillion But yeah it all makes sense..