Oguz Erkan
@oguzerkan
Investor | Writing about stocks, tech, and the markets.
542 Following 131.6K Followers
Has Brazil converted to communism??
What is -26% overnight?? Insane.
This is not good for the AI trade.
JP Morgan sees fewer new data center projects, and a decline in construction spending.
This is why $NVDA is stuck at 15x forward earnings and it’s not going to get much better.
This is a direct signal that AI capex is about to peak.
Show more
Charlie Munger: “Buy exceptional companies below their 200-week moving average and hold forever.”
$MSFT is up 50% since it hit 200-week moving average in June.
Never doubt Charlie.
Show more
The real reason yields keep rising: The US debt.
Hormuz traffic has recovered, and PCE inflation is cooling, but the yields won't come down.
Because the US government is now refinancing $9 trillion a year with over $2 trillion in new borrowings.
This means around $30 trillion in debt issuance through 2030.
There are only three ways out:
- Accelerating GDP growth
- Cutting the budget deficit
- Inflating it away over time
Investors think the first two are unlikely, which makes inflation inevitable, so they don't want to accept lower yields.
In other words, what's going up is the term premium itself.
This is the textbook definition of a debt spiral.
Show more
This could be the craziest thing that worked.
US started blockading Hormuz in April and secured a narrow corridor for ships near the Omani Coast.
Oil flows have since returned to pre-war levels, and Iran’s exports have fallen to 0.
Iran no longer controls the Hormuz traffic.
Show more
Copper shortage is getting real.
Chile is the biggest copper producer in the world, supplying 25% of the word’s copper.
Copper production in Chile just hit multi-year lows and no new supply is coming online soon.
Another copper rally coming?
Show more
Trump: “More oil has moved through the Strait of Hormuz over the past three days than at any point in history.”
Hormuz traffic averaged 21 million barrels a day before the Iran War started.
On September 24, almost 22 million barrels moved through the Hormuz.
Show more
The real reason yields keep rising: The US debt.
Hormuz traffic has recovered, and PCE inflation is cooling, but the yields won't come down.
Because the US government is now refinancing $9 trillion a year with over $2 trillion in new borrowings.
This means around $30 trillion in debt issuance through 2030.
There are only three ways out:
- Accelerating GDP growth
- Cutting the budget deficit
- Inflating it away over time
Investors think the first two are unlikely, which makes inflation inevitable, so they don't want to accept lower yields.
In other words, what's going up is the term premium itself.
This is the textbook definition of a debt spiral.
Show more
This could be the craziest thing that worked.
US started blockading Hormuz in April and secured a narrow corridor for ships near the Omani Coast.
Oil flows have since returned to pre-war levels, and Iran’s exports have fallen to 0.
Iran no longer controls the Hormuz traffic.
Show more
Ignore the noise.
The US controls the Straits of Hormuz.
The Economic Warfare unleashed by Trump on Iran is working.
Copper demand is exploding.
No new supply is coming online over the next 8 years. Developing a new copper deposit takes around 15–18 years.
The copper shortage is here.
Gold will come back.
High oil prices are keeping inflation expectations elevated which drives yields higher, and pressures gold.
Oil will soon come down as Gulf exports are now normalising. Yields will follow and gold will recover.
Just a matter of time.
Show more
You are noticing that there is literally 0 differentiation in AI?
Coding, tool use, computer use, personal agent, persistent memory etc.
They also compete in price: We made this model, performs like that model, but 50% cheaper.
Isn’t this straightforward commoditisation?
Show more
This is ridiculous.
> I see $FICO is down 60% YTD.
> Then I look at the valuation.
> Still trading at 19x earnings.
Never, ever overpay.
This is how oil flows out of the Persian Gulf.
The US Navy secured a new route along the Omani Coast, while the traditional "Strait of Hormuz" lanes near Iran remain under blockade.
Looks like Iran has lost all the leverage it had.
Show more
Copper demand is exploding.
No new supply is coming online over the next 8 years. Developing a new copper deposit takes around 15–18 years.
The copper shortage is here.
Gold is a secular long-term long.
Yields are dragging gold down and what controls yields now is oil as the correlation between oil and yields has hit a 35-year high.
Once the war ends, oil will come down, so will the yields.
And gold will recover.
Show more
This is insane.
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf are almost back to pre-war levels.
Meanwhile, Iranian exports have literally hit zero.
Blockading Iran’s blockade actually worked.
Iran can’t stand this for much longer.
Show more
Gold dip today is a buying opportunity.
As Ray Dalio explains, debt problem is always followed by devaluation of the currency.
The US can’t pay its debt back, it can only inflate it away as it’s always been.
This makes gold a secular long.
Show more
U.S. 10-year at 5.25%…
BREAKING: U.S. 10-year yield surges above 5.25% for the first time since 2007.
