i think a lot of founders have the wrong mental model of token launches.
they're optimizing for launch conditions instead of long term price discovery.
a bull market gives you liquidity, attention and speculative demand. but it also gives you inflated expectations, aggressive valuations and buyers who are often more interested in the next rotation than the actual product.
you can launch into that environment, print a beautiful opening chart and still spend the next 12 months distributing into sell pressure.
> now consider the alternative.
launch into a weak market, establish a reasonable valuation, let early price discovery happen, build actual demand and give the market time to understand what you're building.
when liquidity eventually returns, you're not asking new buyers to rescue an overpriced launch. you're giving them an opportunity to discover an asset that has already spent months proving itself.
look at what made $HYPE interesting. the product had traction before the token existed. the token wasn't the business model's starting point.
that's an important distinction founders need to understand.
the best token launches aren't necessarily the ones that capture the most liquidity on day one. they're the ones that create the strongest foundation for sustained demand after day one.
if your entire launch thesis depends on market conditions being perfect, perhaps the token isn't ready. or perhaps you don't have enough conviction in what you're building.