Walter Russell Mead (@wrmead) on why Xi Jinping fears a US counter-blockade, and how China might try to still take Taiwan: "Xi Jinping is committed to trying to get Taiwan. The Chinese need a very high probability of success to commit themselves past a certain point, because failure would be catastrophic for whoever launched it. I think they're trying to get themselves into a position where they could have a soft blockade. They could give the orders that any ship that wants to go to Taiwan first has to stop at a Chinese port and go through a customs clearing process to assert sovereignty. They'll be looking for things that fly just under the radar, that don't actually cause us to really respond, but which alter the situation in their favor. One of the things that keeps Xi Jinping awake at night is his awareness that in any kind of conflict with the United States, China would face being cut off from so many of the raw materials and markets that economy needs. No oil is coming in or out. No manufactured goods are being sold. The soybean contracts they have with farmers in Brazil and Argentina, not getting delivered. We've all been surprised with the Iran war to see just how big the Chinese oil stockpiles have become. A lot of Chinese energy policy can be understood as trying to avoid the trap of dependence on the global economy. They're doing the solar, they're doing as much hydro as they can, and they're also digging as much coal as they possibly can, because what they're trying to do is make themselves less dependent on the outside world, so in a worst case scenario with the US, they can actually fight for the long term."