Perry E. Metzger(@perrymetzger):So I think this is completely false. There is a claim that is made that somehow, the BARC/EA crowd has had uniquely good predictive ability when it comes to AI. However, when you carefully examine it, other people have predicted similar, correct things, without predicting similar risks, and this crowd has predicted many things that have not happened, and that tends to be swept under the rug.

Perry E. Metzger

@perrymetzger

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Perry E. Metzger@perrymetzger

2026.10.07 21:22

So I think this is completely false. There is a claim that is made that somehow, the BARC/EA crowd has had uniquely good predictive ability when it comes to AI. However, when you carefully examine it, other people have predicted similar, correct things, without predicting similar risks, and this crowd has predicted many things that have not happened, and that tends to be swept under the rug.