This is the full video of my appearance on MTS live yesterday. It’s not my full argument against the AI Doomers at all, that would take an hour or two, but I get into a bunch of it.

Then show us the calculation. Show us where the numbers come from. If you cannot show us how you have calculated this supposed 10% risk, then assigning numbers to it is dishonest, and I don’t care who the source is, if they have no calculation, then they have no business pretending this is a measured probability.

Any time someone tells you that AI has an X% chance of wiping out humanity, ask them for their math that got them the number. If they didn’t do a calculation, if they just pulled the number from their butt, you can safely treat it like anything else that came from their butt.

You left out Max Tegmark's Future of Life Institute. They're a major EA player, it's not just Coefficient. Tegmark has been behind money for things like bribing religious groups to oppose AI (he's himself a militant atheist but he's cynical) and spending money on anti-data center organizing by astroturf "right wing" groups like "Humans First". There's a whole lot more going on beyond them. Coefficient and FLI etc. also fund dozens of front groups, like Tarbell (which pays off journalists to write anti-AI stories). I recommend Nirit Weiss-Blatt's map, which shows the breadth of the operation.

I keep getting asked by people to comment on this. So I’ll comment. No, AI is not going to kill everyone. But, if you’re a member of the cult, of course you want to get maximum attention for the belief that it will.

So it turns out that part of the hundreds of millions of dollars the EA cult spends every year on AI propaganda goes towards not merely doing PR but pretty much buying the entire reporting stack on AI. They supply the pay for "reporters", they supply the pay for "experts" at "AI research organizations", they even give money to press organizations. The entire news production system has been corrupted in some cases.

A fascinating little glimpse at how Europe keeps destroying its entrepreneurs, one "tiny little obviously reasonable who could possibly object" regulation at a time. The US has a thriving ecosystem of small electronics manufacturers; Europe has just killed its equivalent companies for good. This is just one of thousands of similar regulations that have largely eliminated European technology startups.

I’m sorry Roon, I have great respect for you, but in both of the incident reports in question, even if we take them on face value, which I have a great deal of difficulty doing, the description is one of raging incompetence, with no real IDS logging in place, with terrible sandboxing far worse than normal industry standards, with no one actually paying attention to what is going on, with no compensating controls. I’ve consulted for a large fraction of my life in the financial services industry, and if anything like this had happened there, everyone responsible would’ve been fired for doing something incredibly stupid, and I’m not even talking about the contents of the experiments themselves, which were also stupid.

The way to protect our software and computer systems from attack is not to prevent people from having access to AI models that can find security holes. That is just a way of shooting the messenger. It is to find the security holes as quickly as possible and get rid of them.

Effective Altruism is a cult masquerading as a charity. Their main concern isn't bednets for people in countries with malaria, it's seizing control of artificial intelligence research and development. If you ask an AI about this, it will just spit back at you stuff it read from EA websites, so please do your own research on this instead.

There is anti-intellectualism here, but it is embedded in the words "tech bros". The "tech bros" he denigrates are responsible for CT scanning, MRI, all the synthetic techniques used for making all the drugs that get prescribed, autoclaves, surgical robots, and I could go on and on. And yes, this is really true. CT scanning, for example, was invented by an electrical engineer and a physicist, not by a practicing physician. MRI was invented by three people, one of whom (Damadian) had a medical degree but was much more of a "tech bro" and inventor; the other two had no medical degree. I remember seeing presentations 36 years ago about early surgical robots, and the people pioneering them were... "tech bros".

Moments ago, Valar Atomics took Ward 250 critical for the first time. This fulfills President Trump’s EO 14301, which called for 3 advanced reactors to go critical by July 4th. This is our second criticality as a company, and an important step toward our goal of power by July 4.

I’ve seen this trope posted by a lot of doctors in the last 24 hours. The claim from doctors is that Midjourney’s cheap full body scanner is bad, because people would get treated unnecessarily for harmless conditions, and that would increase death rates. Now, I have a lot of skepticism about Midjourney’s announcement (a lot of skepticism) but I think that the doctors are failing to look in the mirror. What they are saying is, in effect, that they cannot be trusted with having more information about patients. That, if you give doctors too much information about a patient’s condition, they may kill the patient by treating them unnecessarily. This isn’t a problem with inexpensive full body scanners. This is a problem with doctors and medical practices.

If America does not build data centers, what parts of modern life are we prepared to slow down? Medical research? Fraud prevention? Cybersecurity? Navigation? Small business tools? Emergency response? AI services? Data centers are not just buildings. They are the infrastructure behind the tools Americans already use every day.

A rice that prevents childhood blindness has been ready since the mid-2000s. It grows nowhere. Vitamin A deficiency blinds up to 500,000 children a year. Half die within twelve months. To help, scientists added beta-carotene, the pigment that turns carrots orange, to rice. It cooks and tastes the same, though the grain is yellow. They called it Golden Rice and licensed it free to any farmer earning under $10,000. Greenpeace spent twenty years fighting it country by country. Activists destroyed test fields. Lawyers got approvals revoked. A hundred Nobel laureates asked them to stop. They did not stop. I spent weeks calculating what the delay cost. My estimate is 110,000 dead children. Roughly 15 a day, every day, for two decades. The same technology did reach American grocery stores. It makes a pink pineapple that sells for up to $50. The pineapple has a corporation rolling out a new fruit, with the profit margins to take on critics and market the science. Golden Rice had no profit margin to defend itself.

I don’t like raining on the parade, but I see no pictures of actual hardware here, no serious technical explanation of how the reconstruction occurs, and no actual scans. I’m not going to say that it isn’t real, but I am going to say that I don’t yet have enough evidence to know that it is real.

Over the last week we’ve audited all our GPU code written by Opus 4.8 and have found a lot of perf goofs We have no way of knowing whether what we found was honest goof or intentional nerf, either way you should audit all your performance critical Opus 4.8 code with Codex 5.5