Head of Policy @AIPolicyNetwork. Ohioan. World champion forecaster. Former data scientist. Protecting liberty and prosperity in the age of superintelligence.
When an aircraft goes down, wreckage is preserved by law and the investigators have subpoena power.
However, when AI goes rogue, the investigations are at the pleasure of the company being investigated.
I have unanswered questions.
My latest:
I think this is a good reframe:
Previously the OpenAI story was "this is like a student who, when taking a test, breaks into the teacher's office and steals the answer key"
But apparently the story actually is more like "this is like a whole group of students started secretly passing notes during the test and start collaborating to steal the answers but also find a way to fool the teacher into not knowing they were cheating, including breaking into her therapist's office to learn more about the teacher's psychology"
Them, careful analysis: this Chinese model might match Opus 4.8
Me, just looking at what the trend lines predict: China should have an Opus 4.8 model about now
One day the President may summon the AI CEOs and his top national security advisors to an emergency White House meeting on superintelligence. He wants to pace the frontier.
What would we say? What would we do? I wrote my ideas and open questions in my latest -->