Aleksandar Djokic (Александар Джокич)
@polidemitolog
Political analyst. Former assistant professor at RUDN Moscow. PhD in political science. Bylines in Euronews, Bloomberg, Novaya Gazeta and Radar. Views my own.
1.7K Following 27.1K Followers
Winds of change in Belgrade.
The share of Russians who believe the war in Ukraine is progressing successfully has fallen to 50%, the lowest level since the start of the full scale invasion, according to a July Levada Center survey. Only 8% described the campaign as "very successful," while 42% said it was "rather successful." Overall, 28% viewed the war as unsuccessful, while support for the view that the invasion is succeeding has dropped by 19 percentage points over the past years.
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Putin has stepped up pressure on Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina to lower Russia's key interest rate, signaling his expectations twice in July ahead of the central bank's policy meeting, Bloomberg reports. The Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 14% on July 24, insisting the decision was independent. Analysts say political pressure on the central bank is increasing, although its formal independence has not been abandoned.
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Russian intelligence services were preparing an assassination attempt against Stefan Thumann, head of German defense startup Donaustahl, Die Zeit reported. The company supplies Ukraine with reconnaissance and loitering drones. German authorities began monitoring the case in late 2025 after a suspected Russian operative photographed the entrance to Thumann's home, following an intelligence warning that he faced an elevated threat.
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Russia's average monthly wage, adjusted for purchasing power parity, surpassed those in Greece, Slovakia and Hungary in 2025, Bloomberg reported. Wage growth has significantly outpaced productivity since the start of the war, driven by military spending that has drawn labor and capital into the defense sector. The trend resembles a wartime version of "Dutch disease," with rising labor costs eroding the competitiveness and profitability of civilian industries.
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Black Sea shipping lines have begun imposing war risk surcharges on cargo routes between Turkey and Novorossiysk, because of growing security concerns, per the Insider. Three carriers have introduced fees of $500 to $1,000 per standard 20 foot container, often exceeding the typical freight cost of $250 to $400. Several operators have also suspended services, including FESCO after its container ship YANINA was sunk on August 1.
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Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin rejected calls to place Russia's entire economy on a wartime footing, arguing that such a move would "kill normal economic life" and ultimately "kill the country." In the same interview, Sobyanin said drone attacks targeting Russia have intensified in recent months, claiming that roughly two-thirds of drones launched against Russian territory are aimed at Moscow. His remarks came after several lawmakers called for a broader wartime mobilization of the Russian economy.
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Foreign websites and apps operating in Russia would be required to authenticate users exclusively through Russian mobile phone numbers under draft legislation prepared by the Digital Development Ministry, Vedomosti reported. The measures would effectively force foreign services to integrate with Russia's SORM surveillance system, which enables security agencies to monitor users' communications.
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More than 2,300 retail outlets closed in Moscow shopping malls between July 2025 and June 2026, with new openings replacing only about 80% of closed stores, according to Kommersant. Vacancy rates in Moscow malls rose from 9.7% to 11.6%, while similar trends were reported in St. Petersburg, Kazan, Novosibirsk, and Tyumen. Analysts attribute the decline to weaker consumer spending, rising business costs, and continued migration of shoppers to online marketplaces.
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Russian authorities are urging shipowners to pay for arming civilian bulk carriers operating in the Sea of Azov with heavy machine guns, MANPADS, and anti-drone defenses following a series of Ukrainian strikes on commercial shipping, Bloomberg reports. Moscow is also considering naval convoys, although the costs would still fall on traders and shipowners. The measures come as disruptions to grain exports have pushed wheat prices to their highest level in two years.
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Major General Valery Plokhotnyuk, a former commander of Russia's military contingent in Transnistria and a senior defense industry executive, was buried in Moscow on August 6, IStories reports. His tax identification number was invalidated on August 1, the day of the explosion at the birthday celebration of Russian Aerospace Forces commander Aleksandr Chaiko, suggesting he may have been among those killed. Plokhotnyuk later worked on advanced military command, control and electronic warfare systems.
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China's largest refiner, Sinopec, has increased purchases of Russian crude as supply disruptions from the Middle East persist, Reuters reports. The company bought 30 to 40 cargoes for delivery between July and September, equivalent to roughly 241,000 to 320,000 barrels per day, or 5 to 6% of its refining capacity. The shipments are arranged through intermediaries and paid for in Chinese yuan. Sinopec resumed buying Russian oil in March and April after the US granted a temporary sanctions waiver.
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Ukrainian strikes on Russia's fuel infrastructure are disrupting businesses across multiple sectors, The Insider reported, citing interviews with entrepreneurs in several regions. Farmers described soaring diesel costs and warned that many smaller producers may not survive the year, while construction firms in Belgorod reported fuel shortages and reduced activity. Tourism operators in Crimea described one of the weakest seasons in years, citing power outages, fuel shortages and falling visitor numbers. Several interviewees also said public frustration with the authorities has become increasingly visible.
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A Wildberries warehouse in Yekaterinburg caught fire following a drone attack. Earlier, Russia's aviation authority imposed temporary restrictions on flights at Yekaterinburg's Koltsovo airport, while the Sverdlovsk region governor declared a drone threat. Ukrainian monitoring channels also reported the attack.
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I've heard of Wisconsin because of two things: That '70s Show and the weirdest gubernatorial candidates. I don't think that's good marketing for the state.
Russia has expanded its shadow fleet for transporting liquefied natural gas to 25 vessels, including at least eight secondhand LNG carriers acquired over the past six months and two newly built tankers, the Financial Times reported. The expansion comes ahead of the EU's planned 2027 ban on Russian LNG imports. Four recently acquired vessels have already transported cargoes from hubs handling sanctioned Russian LNG. Russia has also received its first two domestically built Arc7 LNG carriers from the Zvezda shipyard.
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Microsoft has identified a global cyber campaign by the Russian hacking group Storm-2945, a subgroup of Midnight Blizzard, targeting hotel Wi-Fi networks. The attackers used adversary-in-the-middle techniques to redirect users to phishing infrastructure and distribute malware disguised as browser or operating system updates. The malware can steal credentials, collect files, log keystrokes, and provide remote access to infected systems. US and UK authorities have linked Midnight Blizzard to Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).
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China has begun mass production of domestically developed immersion DUV lithography machines for the first time, Reuters reported, marking a major step toward semiconductor self-sufficiency. The systems are used to manufacture advanced chips, though they still lag behind those of Dutch market leader ASML. The move comes as US export controls and Dutch restrictions continue to block China's access to the most advanced EUV and some DUV lithography equipment.
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Fifty-five percent of Ukrainians trust Zelensky, while 40% do not, according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll. The findings indicate that public confidence has declined only marginally following recent anti-government protests. The survey also found that 15% of respondents favor holding elections before the end of the war, while 23% believe elections should take place after a ceasefire.
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Belarusian fuel exports to Russia reached a record high in July, according to Reuters. Rail shipments of gasoline rose 13% from June to 212,000 metric tons, while diesel exports doubled to 162,000 metric tons. Gasoline exports to Russia during the first seven months of 2026 increased 25-fold from a year earlier. The surge comes as Russia faces fuel shortages following Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and other energy infrastructure.
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