Off Leash update 23 September 2026 SOUTH SUDAN •As anticipated – but feared – South Sudan’s Pres. Salva Kiir went ahead with plans to dissolve his government ahead of December elections, effectively destroying the last shred of the 2018 power-sharing agreement that ended three years of civil war by giving the leaders of rival factions a role in a unity government. •Whatever unity the 2018 deal established didn’t last long. Kiir has consistently sidelined his rivals and consolidated power for himself. •His main rival, former First Vice President Riek Machar, remains under house arrest – lest he challenge Kiir’s increasingly desperate grasp on power. •Kiir plans to contest December elections and will probably game the system to ensure he faces no serious challengers. IRAN •Iran’s Pres. Pezeshkian will speak at the UN General Assembly today. The U.S. delegation will likely walk out and miss the first-ever UNGA address by a leader of a country at war with the U.S. •Pres. Trump’s UNGA address yesterday set a belligerent tone for Pezeshkian to respond to. Speaking from a podium usually used to call for peace and diplomacy, Trump mused on Iran, “Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness or generations?” SRI LANKA •A Sri Lankan court convicted 15 men of terrorism for their involvement in the Easter 2019 Islamic State-inspired bombings that killed 267 people and sentenced them to at least 220 years each in prison (I guess in a majority-Buddhist nation sentences need to cover reincarnated lives, too). Nine other defendants were acquitted for insufficient evidence. •Many Sri Lankans feel their former government should’ve been in the docket, too. It had ample warning of the attacks – including domestic memos that terror groups were planning a major incident and specific warnings from Indian intelligence hours before the first blast – and failed to act. •The new government, which came to power in 2024, accelerated the long-delayed trials that led to this week’s convictions and even charged several former security officials – including a former defense secretary and police inspector general – with crimes for failing to act on intelligence warnings. ETHIOPIA •Following a government drone strike on a food aid convoy on Sunday, six of Ethiopia’s armed opposition groups announced that they’d banded together in a new coalition they dubbed the Alliance for Survival to oust “dictatorial” Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. •Abiy dismissed the rebels’ challenge as nothing new, and in many ways he’s right: these groups, which include the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, have been clashing with government forces for years and – thanks to Abiy’s brutal reprisals - lack the strength to pose a real threat to Abiy’s government. •Nonetheless, their coalition is a sign that the security situation in Ethiopia – and especially Tigray – remains on the cusp of full-blown war. It’s been on the brink for years, but thus far all sides seem keen to avoid full-scale conflict. NORTH KOREA •In a significant pivot, South Korea’s President, Lee Jae Myung, called on the U.S. to soften its sanctions on North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang’s agreement to freeze – not end – its nuclear weapons programs. •Lee conceded that such a deal might seem unpalatable but pragmatically reasoned that sanctions aren’t working anyway and “aiming for denuclearization under the current circumstances guarantees that nothing will be accomplished.” •Instead, Lee hopes that the freeze he envisions will help Kim Jong Un feel less cornered and more willing to talk. GREENLAND •The U.S. and Denmark are due to announce a deal transferring Greenland’s security to NATO. •Details are hazy and officials on each side present different accounts of what the agreement would really change. Likely little: the U.S. already has permissive military rights on the island, and the Danes probably won’t allow much more. •But any deal on Greenland is better for both sides than the back-and-forth bickering they’ve been doing.