TSMC: >40% growth this year; room for 35% in 2027.
$TSM raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to >40% from >30%, above consensus 35% and us (37%), driven by strong AI demand and a steep N2 ramp. Capex also increased to $60–64bn, with another $100B committed to Arizona.
We see room for ~35% growth in 2027; revenue of $233B and EPS of NT$143, 9%/12% above consensus, which likely underestimates the contribution from datacenter CPUs, networking, and HBM base dies. Total AI-related revenues of >$100B next year.
TSMC remains one of our top picks. Its growth is agnostic to share shifts between GPUs and ASICs, and to mix changes across accelerators, CPUs, and networking.
Positive read-across for rest of the sector (memory, semicap, logic).