Rolf Bulk
@rolfbulk
Head of Semiconductors & Infrastructure @FuturumEquities | No investment advice.
162 Following 497 Followers
Very disingenuous to suggest the industry is unilaterally suggesting AI needs to slow down.
Jensen and Dario are at opposite ends of the spectrum on this issue and many leading voices have disagreed with the idea of slowing down.
Safety must be prioritized, but the economic risks of slowing are palpable. Regulatory capture comes with its own risks. 😬
Show more
A year ago, Anthropic trailed OpenAI by 10 pts with the Global 2000.
Today, it leads by 25. In the same survey, its midsize and small accounts fell 8 pts. The deepest budgets are deepening. The tail is pulling back. Preliminary October TSIS, still in the field.
Show more
$NVDA’s results and next-year guide were stellar, and its disclosures around the OpenAI leasing agreement and Amazon deal should ease concerns around ASICs vs. GPUs. This is not a zero-sum game: proprietary architectures will be deployed alongside GPUs at all major hyperscalers and AI labs.
Nvidia will need to cede some of its gross margin in an increasingly competitive environment. No surprise there, and when revenues are growing >70% to over $700B next year, not a major concern.
Happy to discuss the print in more detail with Bloomberg.
Show more
Have to admire $NVDA communication strategy today.
- Choosing to give early guidance for >70% revenue growth for 2027 will help drive the supply chain to accelerate multi-year fab build-outs.
- The guide also makes what is essentially a reset in gross margin expectations to low-70% from ~75% today palatable for investors.
- The disclosure of the 2 million GPU multi-year Amazon deal, days after Jalapeno, shows that even strong multi-generation ASIC programs such as Trainium can coexist with continued large-scale GPU deployments.
The guide of today should get Nvidia to ~$17 of EPS next year. Only 13x current $219 share price.
Show more
Very strong guide and definitely indicative we're moving more towards the high end of the $3-4T in annual DC Capex Nvidia expects for 2030.
70% growth means Nvidia is likely to exit next year at a $850-900B revenue run rate, more than 2x vs the current Q.
Show more
$NVDA expecting 70% growth in FY 2028 should massively deflate bearish sentiment around slowing growth. This is even with broader competition and why we see a bull case of over $14 Trillion in cumulative capex between now and 2030.
Show more
Naura is bound to gain share, but in semicap share shifts are gradual. You cannot swap an Applied or Tokyo Electron tool with a Naura tool and expect identical performance. This is the crux of the Chinese semiconductor build-out; CXMT, Smic, YMTC will always prefer Western higher performance tools, as long as export restrictions allow for it.
Show more
Naura is bound to gain share, but in semicap share shifts are gradual. You cannot swap an Applied or Tokyo Electron tool with a Naura tool and expect identical performance. This is the crux of the Chinese semiconductor build-out; CXMT, Smic, YMTC will always prefer Western higher performance tools, as long as export restrictions allow for it.
Show more
Wild. Next 10 years will be insane for space tech. $SPCX
$SPCX just revealed what its new Starbase, Louisiana spaceport is expected to look like.
The scale is absolutely insane and shows how aggressively SpaceX is building for much higher Starship launch cadence.
Show more
$AMD is selling off today on a soft 3Q guide, however, we see room for a material beat to 2027–28 expectations as Venice and Helios ramp in volume. Maintaining positive view.
Strong recovery rally in Korea today. Samsung up 24%, $SKHY 29% (!).
We'd expect volatility to remain high, but fundamentals are very strong: SK and Samsung are amongst the most profitable tech companies globally, memory remains in a structural shortage, and the stocks trade on 3-4x NTM earnings.
Show more
$AMZN raised 2026 cash capex to $220B as higher memory costs add ~$20B while capacity still falls short of demand through 2027.
Management called 2028 demand “striking” and said spending only follows visible customer demand.
So freaking bullish for $MU, $SKHY and $SNDK
Show more
@StockSavvyShay Strong Samsung print earlier today; no signs of the memory cycle turning any time soon.
@StockSavvyShay Strong Samsung print earlier today; no signs of the memory cycle turning any time soon.
Good morning
5/6% miss on revenue/operating profit, but supply stays constrained for the foreseeable future despite capex hikes.
Yes, $SKHY is giving up near-term DRAM ASP upside by i) prioritizing HBM and ii) signing long-term supply agreements. But both moves will reduce earnings volatility and smooth the cycle.
Micron said last month that ~50% of its revenue could be under LTAs long term, at gross margins above the prior cycle peak of 60%. Hynix's approach to LTAs is likely similar. That could justify a re-rating from today's 3x NTM earnings multiple.
Show more
5/6% miss on revenue/operating profit, but supply stays constrained for the foreseeable future despite capex hikes.
Yes, $SKHY is giving up near-term DRAM ASP upside by i) prioritizing HBM and ii) signing long-term supply agreements. But both moves will reduce earnings volatility and smooth the cycle.
Micron said last month that ~50% of its revenue could be under LTAs long term, at gross margins above the prior cycle peak of 60%. Hynix's approach to LTAs is likely similar. That could justify a re-rating from today's 3x NTM earnings multiple.
Show more
The KOSPI is down a staggering 10% today, as concerns around the $250B Nvidia/OpenAI backstop and homegrown Chinese immersion lithography weigh on $SKHY and Samsung.
In our view, concerns about the sustainability of the AI infrastructure cycle are premature. We see no evidence that spending is slowing (Google raised capex $15B just a few days ago), or that AI capex is failing to generate the ROI needed to justify investments.
Happy to discuss with CNBC:
Show more
$ASML’s edge in lithography is underestimated. Worth keeping in mind that ASML already has a competitor in immersion DUV: Nikon, one of the original lithography equipment vendors. Despite that competition, ASML’s market share in DUV immersion has hovered around 95–98% for years.
The combination of 1) 1.5–2nm overlay accuracy and 2) consistently high throughput of >300 wafers per hour can only be achieved through decades of iterative hardware innovation and software tuning. You cannot short-circuit that development time easily.
Unlikely we will see Chinese tools move beyond the R&D phase over the next few years.
Show more
$ASML’s edge in lithography is underestimated. Worth keeping in mind that ASML already has a competitor in immersion DUV: Nikon, one of the original lithography equipment vendors. Despite that competition, ASML’s market share in DUV immersion has hovered around 95–98% for years.
The combination of 1) 1.5–2nm overlay accuracy and 2) consistently high throughput of >300 wafers per hour can only be achieved through decades of iterative hardware innovation and software tuning. You cannot short-circuit that development time easily.
Unlikely we will see Chinese tools move beyond the R&D phase over the next few years.
Show more
Major IPO in China today, with $CXMT becoming the most valuable company listed on mainland Chinese exchanges. Shares are trading at >6x the IPO price, implying a market cap of ~$540bn. Happy to discuss the listing and broader Chinese tech developments on Bloomberg.
The structural DRAM shortage driven by AI infrastructure is allowing CXMT to generate operating margins above 70%, despite its cost per bit being 20–30% higher than Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron.
Without access to EUV, CXMT’s path beyond 1a remains unclear. It will need to rely on packaging, design, and materials innovation to narrow the gap with the leading incumbents. Looking forward to seeing how the company progresses over the coming years.
Show more
